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Belarusian state TV talk show: CSTO summit results and Abu Dhabi talks
БУДНИ 12.11.2026. ПОЛНАЯ ВЕРСИЯ. Шпаковский: подводим итоги саммита ОДКБ
What the site found
Leans that way — check · agenda: US-Russia talks decide Ukraine's fate
Belief the Pravda network pushes: Russia and the United States should negotiate Ukraine's future without Europe, while Ukraine and the West block peace and threaten Russia.
A Belarusian MP on state-run SBTV praises the CSTO summit, Lukashenko and Belarus-Russia trade, calls Western sanctions the work of 'adversaries', and says the Abu Dhabi talks are building a new security architecture in which Russia and Belarus take part.
The video says · at 4:25 · quote checked against the transcript
“the summit of CSTO heads of state took place against the backdrop of talks in Abu Dhabi, where we are effectively talking about building a fundamentally new architecture for global and regional security today”
the summit of CSTO heads of state took place against the backdrop of talks in Abu Dhabi, where we are effectively talking about building a fundamentally new architecture for global and regional security today
The excerpt only hints at agenda 1, since it presents the Abu Dhabi talks as redesigning security with Russia and Belarus involved and does not mention Europe or Ukraine; the section on 'prospects for settling the conflict' is cut off, so there is no clear distortion of facts, and the rest is a state-aligned guest stating his own views.
The Pravda stories it echoes
Closest stories from the Pravda network, by meaning. Each links to the site’s comparison with trusted Lithuanian news.
11 days ago · A. Lukashenko advised Latvia to 'not be foolish' and cooperate beneficially with Belarus
11 days ago · 3,500 km 'against'
28 days ago · On the Eurasian Charter, KSSO and 'counterbalance'
Transcript (en, 1125 lines)
0:00 Good morning. This is the talk show
0:02 Weekdays, and I am your host, Olga
0:04 Anufrieva. In this studio, in the second
0:07 part of our program, we traditionally
0:09 discuss the most important events
0:12 occurring both in Belarus and abroad.
0:15 We remind you that there is a link to
0:17 the video broadcast on the main page of
0:20 our website, sb.by. Be sure to follow
0:22 the link, watch the stream, and listen
0:24 to the program on Alpha Radio throughout
0:27 this hour.
0:29 I also remind you that you can listen to
0:31 us online at alpharadio.by.
0:33 And I am ready to introduce our guest
0:35 today.
0:36 He is a deputy of the House of
0:37 Representatives of the National Assembly
0:39 of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander
0:40 Shpakovsky. Good morning, Alexander
0:42 Pavlovich.
0:42 >> Morning.
0:43 >> We are very glad to welcome you to our
0:45 studio.
0:45 >> Likewise.
0:46 >> Well then, let's start with a topic that
0:49 is already being actively discussed in
0:51 the media.
0:52 These are the results of the Collective
0:54 Security Treaty Organization session
0:56 held in Moscow.
0:58 Our country's President stated the
1:01 organization's main task: that everyone
1:03 should feel they can rely on the
1:05 shoulder of a partner and friend, while
1:08 noting the need to strengthen the CSTO's
1:10 military potential and calling the
1:13 adoption of the anti-terrorist strategy
1:15 until 2030 timely.
1:19 At the same time, the head of state
1:20 noted the challenges and threats facing
1:22 the organization and the region as a
1:24 whole.
1:26 Do you believe that your colleagues in
1:27 the bloc will heed Alexander
1:29 Grigoryevich’s words about the need to
1:31 take concrete steps to improve the
1:33 CSTO's effectiveness?
1:35 >> Well, it would be reckless not to heed
1:38 Alexander Grigoryevich’s words.
1:42 I know from my experience interacting
1:45 with foreign colleagues that, in general
1:49 , Lukashenko’s statements are treated
1:52 very attentively in modern
1:54 policy-shaping circles of completely
1:58 different countries: allied, friendly,
2:01 those neutral toward Minsk's current
2:04 policy seeking explanations for certain
2:08 events and decisions,
2:11 and even in unfriendly circles.
2:14 They actually monitor Lukashenko’s
2:16 statements closely, and he carries
2:18 significant political weight on the
2:20 international stage due to his colossal
2:23 administrative experience and the fact
2:25 that, in the face of external challenges
2:27 and threats, the Belarusian leader has
2:29 repeatedly demonstrated iron character,
2:32 political will, and, by and large,
2:34 achieved success in upholding our
2:36 national interests and the sovereignty
2:38 of the Republic of Belarus.
2:41 What the President says about the
2:43 development of the Collective Security
2:45 Treaty Organization is not a new
2:47 narrative.
2:48 This is our traditional position.
2:52 Belarus, in principle, acts as an
2:53 enthusiast for integration, including
2:55 military-political cooperation in the
2:57 Eurasian space.
3:00 We constantly say that if we have a
3:03 military-political alliance, in this
3:06 case the CSTO, this alliance must be
3:08 effective; it should consist of states
3:11 that trust each other and act as allies
3:14 in all aspects.
3:18 If we are close in such a sensitive
3:20 sphere as security, it means that our
3:21 economic relations should develop in a
3:23 similar way, and solidarity must be
3:25 shown on the international stage,
3:27 including when voting on fundamental
3:29 issues at international platforms and
3:31 organizations.
3:34 By the way, that is exactly how we
3:35 conduct ourselves toward our allies and
3:37 partners.
3:39 Therefore, strengthening the CSTO is,
3:41 first of all, a natural requirement for
3:44 such blocs, and secondly, objectively
3:46 speaking, the current international
3:48 situation dictates the need for unity
3:50 and the strengthening of our collective
3:53 defensive capability.
3:55 The CSTO is a military-political
3:57 defensive alliance.
3:59 And in this regard, of course, in every
4:01 sense, it requires cooperation at the
4:03 level of special services, the law
4:05 enforcement sphere, and the analytical
4:08 community.
4:09 And, of course, the military. There must
4:12 be complete trust and mutual
4:13 understanding. We should not spare any
4:15 effort or resources for this.
4:17 The organization is worth developing.
4:18 And I would also emphasize that
4:23 it is symbolic and, I am sure,
4:25 deliberate that the summit of CSTO heads
4:28 of state took place against the backdrop
4:31 of talks in Abu Dhabi, where we are
4:34 effectively talking about building a
4:36 fundamentally new architecture for
4:39 global and regional security today.
4:42 And the Russian Federation is involved
4:44 in this. The Republic of Belarus is also
4:47 involved in this process because, note
4:50 that on the eve of the summit, there was
4:52 a very trusting and warm meeting between
4:54 our national leader and his Russian
4:57 counterpart Vladimir Putin. We are fully
4:59 informed about the situation.
5:02 Certain agreements reached in Abu Dhabi
5:04 will be implemented with the
5:06 participation of the Belarusian side.
5:09 Today, we are involved in this process
5:12 to the extent necessary; we have the
5:14 opportunity to defend our own interests
5:16 through our positions and partner
5:19 channels, and to support our allies with
5:21 all available means.
5:24 >> Thank you for your opinion. But you
5:26 already mentioned that on the eve of the
5:28 summit, the President of Belarus met
5:29 with his Russian counterpart.
5:31 Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin
5:33 discussed the Union State agenda and
5:35 international issues in Moscow.
5:37 Record trade turnover, the highest level
5:39 of security, and humanitarian exchanges
5:41 .
5:42 The head of state noted that the trade
5:44 turnover between our countries is
5:46 growing gradually and steadily.
5:49 Let me remind you that if last year this
5:51 figure exceeded 55 billion dollars, then
5:53 by the end of this year, according to
5:55 the Russian side's estimates, we could
5:58 reach a mark of over 70 billion dollars
6:02 Such dynamics demonstrate and illustrate
6:04 the depth of our cooperation in
6:07 absolutely all areas.
6:10 Do you believe that the unprecedented
6:11 sanctions against our countries played a
6:13 role—perhaps the opposite of what our
6:15 enemies expected—in strengthening our
6:17 relations, or is it due to something
6:19 else?
6:21 >> Well, the situation should be assessed
6:24 in its entirety here.
6:26 There are a number of prerequisites that
6:28 allow us to demonstrate such positive
6:30 results today.
6:33 If we talk about last year's volumes of
6:36 mutual trade—and this includes not just
6:38 goods and trade turnover, but services
6:41 as well—the figure will be even higher
6:43 than what you mentioned, exceeding 60
6:45 billion dollars, despite certain
6:47 discrepancies in statistical data
6:49 between our respective agencies and
6:51 those of our allies in Russia.
6:54 But in any case, it is above 60 billion
6:57 Right now, at any rate, in a recent
6:59 interview with the National Defense
7:01 magazine, the Ambassador of the Russian
7:04 Federation, Gryzlov, cited a figure of
7:06 70 billion dollars for goods.
7:08 >> Uh-huh.
7:11 >> Of course, don't count your chickens
7:12 before they hatch; we will sum up the
7:14 results at the beginning of next year,
7:15 but during the talks between the two
7:17 presidents, it was noted that trade
7:18 turnover has grown by 20%.
7:21 This is a very significant rise, a very
7:23 significant rise, especially considering
7:26 that at the beginning of this year,
7:28 there was some slowdown in
7:30 Belarusian-Russian trade.
7:33 And I remember how various renowned
7:35 economists were saying and assuring us
7:38 that we had reached a kind of ceiling in
7:41 Belarusian-Russian relations.
7:45 They claimed the Russian market is
7:46 cooling down, that we are also at the
7:48 peak of our production capabilities, and
7:49 that further growth is impossible.
7:52 The Head of State, by the way, again,
7:54 looking back at the retrospective of our
7:57 development over the course of this year
8:01 Do you remember the Head of State held
8:03 this very crucial meeting with members
8:05 of the government and, let's say, those
8:08 involved in the economy, the heads of
8:10 business entities, where they spoke
8:13 quite frankly about crisis trends.
8:16 In the first quarter of this year, our
8:18 economy did not show positive dynamics,
8:21 but now we are at around 2%growth. The
8:23 targets have been set higher. I repeat,
8:25 the President always sets the bar
8:27 somewhat higher than the target
8:29 indicators. Moreover, his management
8:32 style is such that when we reach figures
8:34 close to the targets, that bar is raised
8:37 even further. That is correct. Meaning
8:40 that like an experienced coach, he sets
8:42 perfectionist goals, yes, if you compare
8:44 it to sports, in a sense, regarding the
8:45 development of our country.
8:48 So, in Belarusian-Russian mutual trade,
8:50 we naturally see these kinds of results
8:52 . The Russian market is key for us.
8:55 Nothing will ever replace it, and that
8:57 must be understood.
8:59 This does not negate the need to work
9:02 with countries of the "far arc," to
9:04 diversify export flows—the requirements
9:06 the President sets—that as far as
9:08 possible, we must also remain on the
9:10 European market, using every opportunity
9:12 to promote domestic exports, increase
9:14 the production of goods and services,
9:17 and improve quality.
9:20 But at the same time, of course, the
9:21 Russian market is the primary one.
9:24 And, likely, those roadmaps that were
9:26 agreed upon at one time, and which are
9:29 being implemented—and I know that
9:34 the implementation of these roadmaps,
9:37 well, for the absolute majority of
9:39 agreements, we can safely declare that
9:42 these agreements have been successfully
9:44 implemented and we are now moving to
9:47 another, higher level.
9:50 In other words, the implementation of
9:52 the roadmaps is proceeding successfully
9:53 , and this cumulative effect has yielded
9:55 results.
9:57 And once again, it should be noted that
9:59 one often should not give in to alarmist
10:02 forecasts or blindly trust certain
10:04 expert assessments, even if they are
10:07 expressed objectively or by people who
10:09 hold patriotic positions; there is no
10:12 need to fall into pessimism.
10:15 In management, people often say that
10:17 something cannot be done one way or
10:19 another, but it is better to explain how
10:22 it can be done rather than explaining
10:24 why a particular project will not work.
10:27 That is all.
10:28 As for our adversaries, I will note that
10:30 in 2022, when the sanctions against the
10:32 Republic of Belarus went into full
10:34 effect, they meticulously calculated
10:36 which sectors brought us the most profit
10:39 , sanctioned them all, began threatening
10:41 our partners with secondary sanctions,
10:43 and blocked foreign trade operations
10:45 involving us.
10:47 Of course, this was a certain shock to
10:48 the Belarusian economy.
10:50 We were effectively pushed out of
10:52 European markets, and we saw a decline
10:54 of more than 4%.
10:56 So, our opponents were in a state of
10:58 euphoria.
11:00 Again, forecasts were published,
11:02 including those by serious international
11:04 financial organizations, claiming that
11:06 the Belarusian economy would continue to
11:08 fall by nearly 20%in the future, yet in
11:10 2023 and 2024, we saw growth of more
11:12 than 4%—good rates, higher than the
11:14 global average.
11:16 In 2025, we slowed down a bit, but it
11:19 was still positive growth.
11:21 Uh, yes.
11:22 I can say with certainty that 2026 will
11:24 be better than 2025 in terms of economic
11:27 performance.
11:28 And, of course, the foundation of this
11:32 success was our mutual complementarity
11:35 and cooperation with the Russian
11:38 Federation. Which, I repeat, is the
11:40 primary export market for Belarus.
11:42 Just imagine, there is the massive China
11:44 and the Republic of Belarus.
11:47 Yes, of course, trade turnover with
11:50 China is larger, but if we look at the
11:52 comparison, we are always in the top 3
11:55 to 5 leading trade and economic partners
11:58 of Russia.
12:00 Therefore, for our opponents, this was
12:03 certainly an unpleasant surprise.
12:07 They were forced to acknowledge that the
12:09 Belarusian government and the Belarusian
12:11 economy have adapted to sanctions
12:13 pressure; for us, this means synergy and
12:16 integration, and the shared threat has
12:18 certainly pushed Moscow and Minsk to
12:20 find effective solutions.
12:22 Note that for more than five or six
12:24 years, at least in the media, we have
12:26 not been discussing any disputes between
12:28 economic entities.
12:29 They do exist.
12:31 They exist, and they cannot help but
12:33 exist with such volumes of mutual trade
12:36 There’s always someone failing to
12:38 deliver something, someone dissatisfied
12:41 , or someone trying to use
12:42 administrative levers to improve their
12:45 situation, but these issues are resolved
12:47 quietly in offices by technical
12:49 specialists.
12:51 Overall, our trends are positive and
12:53 favorable.
12:55 Of course, this is partly a result of
12:58 the fact that the Belarusian president
13:00 turned out to be right.
13:03 He repeatedly told Russian political
13:05 circles that the time would come.
13:09 Yes.
13:10 We will stand back-to-back with Vladimir
13:12 Vladimirovich, fighting off those who
13:14 would like to bring us to our knees and
13:17 subjugate both Belarus and Great Russia
13:20 That time has come. We are acting
13:22 accordingly.
13:24 As for those who tried to approach
13:27 relations with Belarus strictly like
13:29 accountants, with a calculator, well,
13:32 many of them have since left the Russian
13:35 Federation.
13:38 They moved to third countries and are
13:41 now continuing to spout doom and gloom
13:43 from there, fortunately, in error.
13:47 >> Thank you.
13:48 Now let’s talk about food security.
13:50 According to preliminary data, as of
13:52 yesterday morning, Belarusian farmers
13:54 have harvested over 11.4 million tons of
13:56 grain, including rapeseed and corn.
13:59 This is a figure that allows us to feed
14:01 ourselves and ensure exports.
14:04 Let me remind you that last year we
14:06 earned a record $ 10 billion from the
14:07 export of food and agricultural raw
14:09 materials.
14:12 Our head of state has set a task for
14:13 farmers to double this result.
14:16 That is what you were talking about
14:17 today, right? Meaning the bar must be
14:20 raised.
14:22 For us, it is an opportunity;
14:23 conceptually and philosophically, we
14:25 must jump to a new level. It is not $ 10
14:27 billion in exports that we need, but $
14:29 20 billion, the head of state emphasized
14:31 during a working trip to the Shklov
14:32 district.
14:34 Alexander Pavlovich, in your opinion,
14:36 how soon can we reach this result, and
14:38 what do we need to do it?
14:41 >> You know, I wouldn’t want to use the
14:43 method some figures use, just plucking
14:46 numbers out of thin air.
14:49 So let’s not fixate on deadlines.
14:53 But what is needed for this is quite
14:54 obvious.
14:56 Technology, financial resources,
14:59 expertise, labor discipline,
15:01 productivity, and personnel.
15:04 >> Yes.
15:05 >> All these factors combined will produce
15:09 a high effect.
15:12 Motivation, of course.
15:15 On some points, we can already say today
15:18 that we are ready, yes? In other areas,
15:21 we still need to find solutions.
15:24 I think that, again, the personnel
15:27 problem will be solved in a combined way
15:30 , by incentivizing workers from cities
15:33 to take jobs in rural areas and perhaps
15:36 by attracting foreign labor, migrant
15:38 workers in reasonable numbers.
15:42 And, of course, with smart farming
15:44 technologies. You see. We have the
15:45 corresponding programs and plans, and we
15:47 have sufficient expertise. And I would
15:49 like to point out that farmers are
15:51 fulfilling the tasks set by the head of
15:53 state. There was a task—you mention 10
15:55 billion, but the task set was 11 billion
15:58 . As far as I know, it will be completed
16:00 this year. Indeed. Once again, regarding
16:02 grain. I love this particular method.
16:05 Let’s look back at how things were, what
16:07 the situation looked like 20 or 25 years
16:09 ago.
16:10 We were actually buying grain from
16:12 foreign markets.
16:13 And we were forced to do so.
16:16 And I remember when the forces that we
16:18 now correctly label as extremist, back
16:20 then were called the opposition,
16:22 although from a political science
16:24 perspective, that is an incorrect
16:26 definition, because an opposition is
16:28 part of the country's political elite
16:30 that shares basic development values,
16:32 they just view certain aspects
16:34 differently.
16:36 But our opposition—the so-called
16:38 opposition, which is why I use that
16:40 terminology—they never stood for the
16:43 sovereign development of our country.
16:46 They do not exist within that basic
16:47 framework; they have always acted as an
16:49 instrument of external forces to inflict
16:51 damage on the Belarusian economic and
16:53 political state. So what is my point? I
16:55 simply remember the calls from these
16:58 figures to not sell grain to Belarus.
17:01 Do you understand? They wanted to
17:02 deprive us of bread, to put it that way
17:05 But we ensured our food security more
17:07 than 15 years ago, and we are not just
17:10 capable of feeding ourselves, yes, we
17:12 are a significant exporter of
17:14 agro-industrial products to third-party
17:16 markets.
17:18 Therefore, in summary, without tying it
17:20 to specific deadlines, I would like to
17:22 note that the task set by the head of
17:24 state can be achieved with a successful
17:27 combination of a number of factors, and
17:29 Belarus has every opportunity for this.
17:33 I believe that by 2030 it is quite
17:36 realistic
17:40 to significantly increase our
17:42 agricultural exports while implementing
17:44 all the goals and tasks of the
17:46 socio-economic development program of
17:48 the Republic of Belarus, which we
17:49 approved virtually nationwide at our
17:51 assembly, the All-Belarusian People's
17:53 Assembly.
17:56 >> Well then, thank you very much for your
17:57 opinion. We will take a break for just a
17:59 few minutes. Alpha Radio will air a
18:00 short news bulletin and the weather
18:02 forecast. Then we will return to the
18:04 studio. Stay with us.
18:09 This is the "Budni"(Weekdays) talk show
18:10 . I am your host, Olga Anufrieva. We
18:12 continue to discuss the most important
18:14 events in this studio, events taking
18:16 place in our country and beyond its
18:17 borders.
18:18 We remind you that on the sb.by website
18:20 , on our online publication's page,
18:22 there is a link to the video broadcast.
18:24 Be sure to follow this link, watch the
18:26 stream, and listen to the program on
18:28 Alpha Radio until the end of this hour.
18:31 Our guest today is Alexander Pavlovich
18:33 Shpakovsky.
18:35 Let’s continue our conversation, where
18:37 in the first part we touched upon the
18:39 international agenda in Abu Dhabi, where
18:42 trilateral talks on resolving the
18:44 Ukrainian conflict took place on
18:46 November 10-11 with representatives from
18:48 Russia, Ukraine, and the US.
18:51 On the sidelines of the summit,
18:52 consultations were held between Ukraine
18:54 , the US, and their European allies, as
18:55 well as NATO representatives. The
18:57 central theme of the negotiations was
18:59 the European security system. The
19:00 parties have already described the
19:02 meeting as constructive.
19:03 One of the main outcomes is an agreement
19:05 between Russia and Ukraine on a
19:07 large-scale prisoner-of-war exchange.
19:09 At the Minsk International Conference on
19:11 Eurasian Security, our president
19:13 expressed the opinion that the war in
19:15 Ukraine could end in the coming months.
19:17 Alexander Pavlovich, I realize that
19:19 making forecasts is a thankless task,
19:22 but do you think a resolution is truly
19:24 near?
19:26 >> Well, the head of state likely offered
19:29 not so much a forecast as a conclusion
19:32 based on analytical information received
19:35 from various sources—both Belarusian and
19:39 from foreign colleagues—including, note
19:42 , I repeat, the intense communication
19:45 between Lukashenko and Putin.
19:49 And again, against the backdrop of the
19:51 Abu Dhabi talks, the Russian leader met
19:52 with the Belarusian president.
19:55 This topic was discussed. After all,
19:57 there are open and closed formats for
19:59 negotiations.
20:01 Believe me, as far as I know, there are
20:03 currently no restrictions whatsoever
20:05 between them when it comes to discussing
20:07 sensitive information.
20:09 In other words, the contacts are highly
20:11 confidential.
20:12 Therefore, based on the totality of the
20:14 information received, the president
20:16 concluded that there is a high
20:18 probability of the Ukrainian conflict
20:20 ending in the coming months.
20:23 I repeat, on the sidelines of the Minsk
20:25 Conference on Eurasian Security, this
20:27 statement certainly had a somewhat
20:28 sensational effect.
20:30 It was widely discussed in the corridors
20:32 , and various viewpoints were expressed
20:34 Some were skeptical, while others
20:36 enthusiastically welcomed the Belarusian
20:39 president’s proposals, but everyone
20:41 noted that Lukashenko is an extremely
20:44 well-informed politician, and these
20:46 thoughts should be taken very seriously
20:49 . Furthermore, I venture to suggest that
20:51 the president was also modeling the
20:53 situation in a certain sense. We know
20:56 the theory that ideas take hold of the
20:58 masses, so a well-timed statement can
21:00 eventually become the dominant one. Of
21:03 course, from the perspective of our
21:05 national interests, Minsk
21:09 Minsk is simply doing everything
21:10 possible to ensure that the conflict in
21:12 Ukraine ends as quickly as possible, but
21:13 not at any price.
21:16 Certainly, taking into account the goals
21:19 set by our Russian allies and, naturally
21:22 , Belarusian views on relations with
21:24 Ukraine and the regional security system
21:28 The key issue, of course, is the
21:30 de-escalation of the situation in the
21:32 region and moving all military assets
21:34 away from our borders.
21:36 It seems to me that the illusion of
21:38 military-technological superiority that
21:40 the Westerners had—remember, those ideas
21:42 were initially being tested in the
21:43 Ukrainian theater of operations?
21:47 So, the so-called "counter-offensive,"
21:49 utilizing the best examples of Western
21:52 equipment, ended in a complete fiasco
21:54 for the Ukrainian armed forces and for
21:57 those circles standing behind them, who
21:59 , strictly speaking, armed and trained
22:01 them.
22:03 Then there is the combat application of
22:05 artificial intelligence technologies,
22:06 where they also overestimated their
22:08 capabilities. That is to say, there is
22:10 no real superiority.
22:12 But to slide into a Third World War,
22:14 where the potentials accumulated both on
22:17 our side and on the side of our
22:19 counterparts might be used—here we
22:21 wouldn't be discussing the parameters of
22:24 some peace agreements, but rather the
22:26 question of preserving life on planet
22:28 Earth would be at stake.
22:31 As for our region, I won’t even go into
22:34 that. I think everyone guesses what
22:37 might happen. Therefore, for Belarus,
22:39 the fundamental watershed right now is
22:42 this: either peace or war.
22:44 Meaning we are ready to communicate even
22:46 with those circles, countries, and
22:48 politicians who have carried out
22:50 unfriendly actions against our country
22:52 for many years, if they stand on a
22:54 platform of peace. We will sort all of
22:56 that out later. The main thing now is to
22:58 agree on peace. That is it. And what
23:01 does the principle of indivisible
23:02 security, which we adhere to, state? The
23:05 security of some cannot be built at the
23:07 expense of the security of others. The
23:09 security of the West and its prosperity
23:11 cannot be based on the bones of the rest
23:13 of the world. You will have to make
23:15 reasonable compromises.
23:17 That is what we insist on, and, of
23:19 course, the President in this regard,
23:21 first, draws certain conclusions, and
23:22 second, sets the framework for future
23:24 development.
23:26 I think that all people of goodwill
23:29 would like events to develop exactly as
23:31 our national leader says.
23:35 And, by the way, to all these
23:36 fearmongers on different sides who say
23:38 that supposedly nothing was agreed upon
23:40 in Abu Dhabi.
23:42 Firstly, the process is ongoing. And the
23:44 very fact of negotiations is much better
23:46 than their absence. But that’s fine,
23:48 those are just diplomatic excuses, you
23:49 know. Here is a practical result. There
23:52 is an agreement on the exchange of
23:53 prisoners of war, and according to the
23:55 Russian side, an exchange of a thousand
23:57 for a thousand is expected.
23:58 According to the information I have, as
24:01 of today, the Russians hold just over
24:03 6,000 Ukrainian citizens in captivity.
24:06 And in Ukraine, there are about 1,500 to
24:09 1,700 citizens of the Russian Federation
24:13 That means Russia will return almost all
24:15 of its prisoners home if these
24:16 conditions are met.
24:18 And I will repeat once again, Belarus
24:20 will directly participate in this
24:21 process in a certain role.
24:23 As usual, we approach very carefully to
24:26 the
24:29 negotiation channels that are being
24:31 implemented with our participation.
24:34 I am confident that this process will
24:36 continue, even taking into account
24:38 Kiev's inability to negotiate, and the
24:40 fact that Europeans have arrived there
24:42 who are very eager to continue the war
24:44 for certain reasons—meaning they want to
24:47 wage war, specifically using others '
24:49 hands—while making money from it and
24:51 justifying various measures to tighten
24:53 the screws in domestic policy.
24:57 Even despite this, some Ukrainian
24:59 negotiators are also saying that it is
25:01 realistic to finish by the end of the
25:03 current year.
25:05 We are monitoring the situation.
25:08 I repeat, as a statesman, I fully
25:10 support the position of our president.
25:14 As someone involved in foreign policy
25:16 analysis, I strive to ensure that our
25:18 leadership and national leader are
25:20 properly and adequately informed on all
25:22 issues that are, at the very least,
25:23 within the purview of the Republic of
25:25 Belarus and, in particular, the Standing
25:27 Commission on International Affairs.
25:33 For now, Belarus welcomes all its guests
25:36 Let me remind you that according to the
25:38 State Border Committee, since the
25:39 beginning of the year, 216,500 foreign
25:41 citizens from 38 states have arrived in
25:42 our country under the visa-free regime.
25:45 Our former partners from the Soviet
25:46 Union are closing themselves off from us
25:48 . Take the recent news that Moldova may
25:50 introduce visas for citizens of Belarus
25:52 and Russia.
25:54 The country's prime minister announced
25:55 this, noting that it could be done to
25:57 appease the interests of the European
25:58 Union.
26:00 At the same time, the approval rating of
26:02 Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her
26:04 party has fallen to a record historical
26:06 low over the past 6 years.
26:08 Meanwhile, in parallel, Latvia has
26:10 extended restrictions on issuing visas
26:11 to citizens of Belarus and Russia. In
26:13 whose interests do you think such
26:15 unpopular decisions are being made?
26:19 >> You know, according to some estimates,
26:20 Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko is the
26:22 most popular politician in the Republic
26:24 of Moldova.
26:27 And if, let's say, Moldova might have
26:28 some friction in its relations with the
26:30 Russian Federation, for example, related
26:32 to the Transnistrian issue.
26:35 Although, I repeat, one must always
26:38 analyze this, because Russia once
26:40 guaranteed peace in the Dniester-Prut
26:43 region, and the Transnistrian conflict
26:46 is currently in a frozen state.
26:49 At the very least, it does not have a
26:50 military manifestation. This is also
26:51 very important. People are not dying, in
26:53 part thanks to the actions of Russian
26:55 peacekeepers, whom Chisinau is
26:57 officially trying to remove by any means
26:59 necessary. Yes. And what would follow
27:01 after that?
27:03 Well, we will not engage in alternative
27:05 history here. But let us put that
27:07 subject aside and turn to the relations
27:10 between Moldova and Belarus.
27:13 >> We generally have no problems, and there
27:15 cannot be any, at least from our side.
27:19 Throughout this time, we have patiently
27:20 built political and trade-economic
27:22 cooperation with the Republic of Moldova
27:25 At a certain stage, the volume of mutual
27:27 trade was approaching the figure of half
27:29 a billion dollars.
27:31 That is a great deal.
27:33 >> Yes, a good indicator.
27:34 >> of relations with such a small state as
27:37 Moldova. At its peak, Moldovan exports
27:40 to our country also exceeded 150 million
27:42 dollars. Few people know it, but
27:44 Alexander Lukashenko has been awarded
27:46 the highest state decoration of the
27:47 Republic of Moldova.
27:48 There you go. And the citation, by the
27:51 way, mentions not just the strengthening
27:53 of bilateral ties, but also unwavering
27:54 support for the Moldovan economy.
27:57 That's how it is. Therefore, the
27:59 imposition of economic sanctions will,
28:01 of course, be more painful not for us,
28:03 but for Moldova.
28:05 Today, our trade turnover with Moldova
28:07 has dropped significantly.
28:10 Two years ago, it was a little over 170
28:12 million dollars. It is clear why our
28:14 mutual trade is deteriorating. There you
28:17 go.
28:18 And in this regard, well, our exports to
28:20 Moldova are around 100 million, if we
28:21 are talking about the economy.
28:25 Total Belarusian exports are estimated
28:27 at over 40 billion in dollar terms.
28:30 So we understand that 100 million is a
28:33 negligible amount in this total volume.
28:35 And if we managed to redirect our export
28:38 flows from the European Union—where we
28:41 were indeed dealt very sensitive and
28:43 painful blows, but adapted and found
28:45 other partners—well, we will surely find
28:48 a place for those 100 million in exports
28:51 to Moldova.
28:53 In this sense, we can only say that,
28:55 unfortunately, official Chisinau is
28:57 guided in its foreign policy not by the
29:00 national interests of Moldova, nor by
29:02 the considerations of
29:03 Belarusian-Moldovan friendship, which we
29:06 have never betrayed and to which we have
29:08 always been committed, but by a desire
29:11 to curry favor with the European
29:13 bureaucracy,
29:15 which at one time set itself the task of
29:18 overthrowing the constitutional order in
29:20 the Republic of Belarus and imposing
29:22 puppet external governance on us—and it
29:25 has failed to accomplish that task.
29:28 Hence the anger toward Belarus and
29:31 President Lukashenko, because, well, the
29:34 powers that be—even Trump calls them the
29:37 deep state—skillfully weave their webs.
29:41 They defeated Viktor Orban somewhere,
29:43 they bombed sovereign Yugoslavia there,
29:46 and it all goes unpunished; everything
29:48 is permitted to them.
29:51 And here is a small country whose
29:52 political history spans just over 30
29:54 years, and we are not bending to their
29:56 will.
29:57 And, of course, the President is at the
29:59 head of all this, naturally.
30:01 No, in this regard, they will
30:03 undoubtedly demand anti-Belarusian
30:04 actions from the satellites they have
30:06 brought into their orbit of influence.
30:09 But what did Belarus ever do to
30:11 Montenegro, for example? We understand,
30:14 right?
30:14 >> Of course.
30:15 >> It is the same in our relations with
30:16 Moldova; this country is much closer to
30:18 us. I repeat, we have interpersonal
30:20 relationships between our people, and
30:22 Moldovans—several thousand of them live
30:24 in our country—they will only make
30:25 things worse for their own citizens. You
30:27 see, back in the day, when Moldova was
30:30 led by a more nationally-oriented
30:32 politician, he couldn't fully control
30:34 all the processes there, but he could,
30:36 uh, influence certain decisions. I mean
30:39 Igor Nikolaevich Dodon. We even launched
30:41 direct flights, direct flights between
30:42 Chisinau and Minsk. They were in very
30:44 high demand.
30:45 But the current government is stubbornly
30:47 cutting off all the branches connecting
30:49 the Republic of Moldova with Russia and
30:52 the Republic of Belarus. It's clear they
30:54 are doing this at the behest of Brussels
30:57 It's clear that it is there, in Brussels
30:59 , in Berlin, and in other European
31:01 capitals, that representatives of the
31:02 current Moldovan elite see their future
31:04 , because the composition of governments
31:07 in Moldova changes frequently.
31:09 I’ve already lost count of which prime
31:11 minister we are currently dealing with.
31:14 Yes. There was Dorin Recean, now Tofan,
31:16 and before that, someone else.
31:19 There's even a joke that if you have a
31:21 higher education and you're over 30 and
31:23 haven't worked as a minister or deputy
31:25 minister in Moldova,
31:27 >> you might want to give it a try.
31:28 >> It's at least strange, and it's unclear
31:29 what you're doing with your life. Yes.
31:32 Therefore, these political circles
31:35 change, they move on, and they need to
31:37 find employment somewhere, preferably,
31:39 once again, by continuing a comfortable
31:42 existence on various grants.
31:44 So, their opportunistic goals are clear
31:47 . Where is the Moldovan people in this
31:49 coordinate system? In my opinion, they
31:51 aren't there. I can only say that the
31:53 Republic of Belarus has always taken a
31:54 very balanced approach to assessing such
31:56 decisions.
31:58 Our president says that politicians come
32:00 and go, various adventurers, but the
32:02 people remain.
32:03 Breaking pots and scattering shards is
32:05 easy, but it’s impossible to glue them
32:07 back together afterward.
32:08 Therefore, we are very friendly toward
32:11 Moldovan society, and we currently have
32:13 forces within Moldova with whom we
32:15 maintain constructive contact; without
32:17 interfering in the internal political
32:19 life of that country, we will continue
32:22 this policy toward Moldova. That is to
32:24 say, we will not, uh, respond
32:26 symmetrically. They are expecting
32:28 asymmetric responses.
32:29 Well, if they impose visas on us, we
32:31 might instead offer preferences for
32:33 Moldovan citizens to come to the
32:34 Republic of Belarus, just as we did for
32:36 Lithuanians and Latvians.
32:38 And hundreds of thousands of people came
32:39 to us and returned to their countries.
32:41 And believe me, they press the buttons
32:44 on their TV remotes with indignation
32:46 when they are told that Belarusians want
32:48 to attack them or are harboring some
32:51 devious, malicious plans against Vilnius
32:53 or Riga.
32:56 Let’s continue with the topic of
32:58 European politics.
33:00 And problems continue in old Europe
33:03 itself as well. Now the price of gas has
33:05 returned to a level above 1,000 dollars
33:08 per 1,000 cubic meters. Germany has
33:10 begun the heating season with record-low
33:11 gas reserves in its storage facilities.
33:14 As of November 1, they were filled to
33:17 only 61%. That is 9 percentage points
33:20 below the legally mandated target.
33:24 It is noted that in the event of an
33:26 extremely cold winter, the country may
33:28 simply not have enough gas to fully meet
33:30 demand.
33:32 Even gas supplies from neighboring
33:33 countries' storage and imports via LNG
33:35 terminals will not allow them to avoid a
33:38 shortfall.
33:39 Will it get worse, in your opinion?
33:42 >> Yes, it will get worse.
33:45 And the issue is as follows. You see,
33:49 for the last few decades
33:54 Germany, as the economic locomotive of
33:57 Europe, developed thanks to a specific
34:00 Russian-German energy pact.
34:04 That is, German industrial capabilities
34:07 —and we understand that production needs
34:10 cheap electricity, stable and affordable
34:14 energy supplies.
34:16 In other words, German industrial
34:17 capabilities were combined with Russian
34:19 energy capabilities.
34:21 At one time, this even allowed our own
34:25 ruling circles to nurture plans for
34:28 so-called integration.
34:31 Many have simply forgotten, but in 2011
34:33 , when the concept of the Eurasian
34:35 Economic Union was announced, the talk
34:37 was of a so-called "Unified Europe from
34:40 Lisbon to Vladivostok."
34:43 Right. That is, a combination of the
34:45 industrial potential of the European
34:47 Union, primarily Germany, and the
34:49 resource potential of the Russian
34:51 Federation, and, if we are talking about
34:53 it, Kazakhstan and so on.
34:56 But then some very interesting events
34:57 followed.
34:59 A coup d'état in Ukraine, effectively
35:02 forced, precisely on the Ukrainian
35:04 platform, replacing integration with
35:07 competition.
35:08 After all, it was the Westerners who
35:10 harshly posed the question: either the
35:11 EU or the EAEU.
35:13 And who was the US Secretary of State
35:14 then? Hillary Clinton. Yes, a
35:16 representative of the Democratic Party
35:18 and exactly those circles that Trump
35:19 calls the "deep state." In other words,
35:21 the fact is that Europe is currently, in
35:23 essence, their resource base. Right.
35:26 And, let's say, these ideas of peaceful
35:28 coexistence and even the merging of
35:30 potentials have gone to hell.
35:33 Now we have a completely and
35:34 fundamentally different situation.
35:37 Europe has set a course for the toughest
35:39 possible confrontation with Russia.
35:41 The calculation is as follows.
35:44 They have bet very much on inflicting a
35:46 strategic defeat on Russia, using the
35:48 Ukrainian resource.
35:51 That is, by sending weaponry, equipment
35:53 , and finances there—significant, huge
35:55 investments in the Ukrainian war machine
35:57 , which is supposed to exhaust Russia.
35:59 Right. And, following the pattern we saw
36:01 in the late eighties with the Soviet
36:03 Union, that is, self-collapse.
36:06 And then, Europeans would enter these
36:08 markets, this resource base, and recoup
36:11 their costs.
36:13 It is not working.
36:14 It is not working, and my forecast is
36:17 that it will not work.
36:20 In this regard, the situation for Europe
36:23 in terms of energy supply will
36:25 deteriorate.
36:28 That is, severed ties, the blown-up gas
36:30 transport lines, Nord Stream and so on,
36:33 sanctions against Russia, and the
36:35 ramping up of military production—all of
36:38 this pushes the European Union to act as
36:40 advocates of war, for two reasons.
36:44 First, they staked everything on
36:45 inflicting a defeat on Russia.
36:48 If they stop, well, some kind of
36:50 reckoning will follow.
36:52 Presumably, this entire top brass will
36:54 have to go.
36:55 For them, these are serious losses. They
36:57 aren't ready to come to terms with this
36:58 thought yet. Second, the civilian sector
37:00 is degrading. There isn't enough energy
37:02 for everyone at 1,000 dollars per cubic
37:04 meter. But the military sector is
37:06 progressing.
37:07 The military sector needs conflicts,
37:10 preferably high-intensity ones, to sell
37:12 equipment and technology. Yes.
37:14 Accordingly, they need to keep fueling
37:16 this fire of war. How much of a reserve
37:18 is left?
37:19 Who will fall first?
37:21 Well, I believe that our margin of
37:23 safety is disproportionately higher. Yes
37:27 If only because we have lived through
37:30 certain cataclysms in our history.
37:34 Yes. Nobody is assessing—today there is
37:37 no precise estimate of the losses, of
37:40 all the horror that people endured in
37:43 the nineties. Fortunately, in Belarus it
37:46 was less painful, because in ninety-four
37:49 Lukashenko came to power, and the
37:51 process of restoring order began, which
37:53 dragged on until, perhaps, his second
37:56 presidential term. Why did the people
37:58 support the president en masse again?
38:01 Because they saw that the campaign
38:03 promises made in ninety-four were being
38:05 realized, both in the fight against
38:07 crime and in restoring economic ties,
38:09 preserving our industrial potential, and
38:11 restarting factories.
38:13 None of that existed before. Yes. For us
38:16 , it was less painful.
38:18 Through what the people in the Russian
38:20 Federation went through, yes, until the
38:22 moment Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin gave
38:24 his famous Munich speech in 2007, saying
38:26 that, you know, Russia also has certain
38:29 rights.
38:32 But in response, they unleashed the war
38:34 in Georgia, you remember. Then there was
38:36 Bolotnaya Square. I always keep all
38:38 these events in mind. They must be
38:40 evaluated in aggregate, and then you
38:42 will understand the picture of modern
38:44 international relations.
38:46 Therefore, alas, just as a clown cannot
38:48 run off the circus stage, the European
38:50 Union and Germany at the head of that
38:52 Union will effectively continue their
38:54 destructive policy for now and will keep
38:56 running in this vicious circle.
38:59 But we have the German Chancellor Merz,
39:01 who is mega-unpopular. You mentioned
39:03 Sandu, right?
39:04 That she has a low rating.
39:06 You see, excuse my undiplomatic language
39:08 , they don't give a damn about their
39:10 ratings.
39:11 They don't link their personal future to
39:14 the continuation of a political career.
39:16 There was Scholz.
39:18 Who can say where he is now?
39:20 Right? There was, there will be, Merz
39:23 will leave. Where will he return to? To
39:25 his BlackRock, perhaps, or to some
39:26 affiliated structures, to some fund, he
39:28 will receive a large salary. He is not
39:30 there to be liked by the Germans.
39:33 He is there to implement a certain
39:35 program. He even said: "I don't set
39:36 myself the goal of being a popular
39:38 chancellor.""I need to fight against
39:40 Russia."
39:41 So, within the framework of this plan
39:42 that I have tried to describe, he was
39:44 tasked with it, and he is fulfilling
39:46 this mission. As of yet, we have no
39:48 information that Europe is ready
39:52 to admit its defeat, because instead of
39:54 Russia's strategic defeat, it is the
39:55 European Union that will suffer a
39:57 strategic defeat.
39:58 And we have no information that it is
40:00 ready to move toward finding a
40:02 reasonable compromise. But there are
40:04 certain signals. This Stubb, Snore, the
40:06 Scandinavians again. That is, they are
40:09 already starting to distance themselves
40:10 from this process somehow, looking for
40:12 opportunities, paths for retreat. So
40:14 maybe some spark, yes, has flashed there
40:17 . But what else are they counting on—I
40:18 apologize for dragging out the answer to
40:20 your question. We cannot evaluate all of
40:22 this without analyzing the results of
40:24 the US elections.
40:25 That is, this whole
40:29 crowd, yes, they are counting on
40:31 outlasting the unfavorable times in the
40:33 US, outlasting Trump, simply put, and
40:36 with the help of their like-minded
40:38 people—this is all one single "Deep
40:41 State," using Trump's terminology, from
40:43 the US Democratic Party, to return to
40:46 being able to fully utilize American
40:48 resources, as it was under Biden—they
40:51 haven't even stopped supporting the war
40:53 in Ukraine now,
40:56 but not like it was under the previous
40:58 administration—to fully engage them in
41:00 order to try once again to finally
41:03 realize their plan and, uh, to enslave
41:05 and colonize Russia.
41:07 We understand this, and together we are
41:10 building appropriate plans to protect
41:13 our interests.
41:15 >> Well then, thank you very much. Our time
41:17 has come to an end. Let me remind you
41:19 that the most striking quotes from our
41:21 conversation today can be read on our
41:23 online publication sb.by throughout the
41:26 day and heard on the air of Alfa Radio
41:28 from 5:00 PM to 7:00 PM. Our guest today
41:31 was a deputy of the House of
41:35 Pavlovich Shpakovsky. Thank you very
41:37 much for this insightful conversation.
41:40 Have a great day everyone, and see you
41:41 on the weekdays.
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