0:00 He said that there are many factors that
0:02 allow us to say that the situation is
0:04 different from what it was during
0:06 Istanbul 1 and Istanbul 2.
0:09 What are these factors?
0:11 The first is Europe; Europe is beginning
0:14 to shed the illusion that they can
0:17 defeat Russia on the battlefield.
0:21 They have already admitted that this is
0:24 Now they are thinking more about how not
0:27 to lose when Russia wins.
0:29 This is an important factor; it changes
0:32 the disposition as a whole.
0:35 The second, more urgent one, is the
0:36 elections in the United States, which
0:38 have narrowed the window of opportunity
0:41 to roughly December 31st.
0:44 That is, they need to try to make some
0:47 important decisions while the old
0:49 Congress is still in session.
0:51 By the way, I will say right away that
0:52 they will not succeed.
0:54 But the desire is there, and this desire
0:57 itself is spurring on the negotiation
1:01 This window of opportunity acts upon
1:03 everyone, on all parties to the conflict
1:07 The third factor, which is also of
1:09 significant importance, is the probable
1:12 meeting of the three—a tripartite
1:14 meeting in Shenzhen between Putin, Xi
1:19 It is exerting pressure from the future
1:22 onto the present, because everyone
1:24 understands that global security
1:27 parameters will be discussed at that
1:30 meeting, and the lack of any movement on
1:35 resolving regional conflicts will hinder
1:38 those global agreements.
1:41 Therefore, Putin, Trump, and, in fact,
1:44 Xi Jinping are interested in untying
1:47 some knots before the APEC summit in
1:53 This APEC summit, as it were, from the
1:56 future is exerting an influence on today
2:00 The fourth factor—I am not ranking them
2:03 by priority, I am just listing them in a
2:09 This is, of course, our response—I
2:11 emphasize, our response—to the forty-day
2:14 attack on civilian infrastructure in
2:16 Russia, which is continuing today.
2:19 This is important: keep track, dear
2:21 friends, of whether we are conducting
2:23 air strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure
2:26 right during the negotiations. Yes, the
2:28 answer is yes, we are.
2:30 That is, we are not stopping; we are not
2:32 demonstrating any gestures of goodwill.
2:35 And the quality of these air strikes is
2:38 leading to the fact that Ukraine, as
2:41 Europe's testing ground and tool, is
2:44 effectively becoming unusable by this
2:51 Everyone understands this, and it has
2:53 dawned on Europe that they cannot
2:55 restore this tool of theirs.
2:58 They might even find the money, but you
3:00 cannot patch bridges with money.
3:03 And you cannot heat large cities with
3:05 millions of people with money, either.
3:07 Therefore, our pressure on the enemy's
3:11 operational rear is, of course, exerting
3:15 a suffocating influence on the European
3:19 partners of the Kyiv regime. Well, the
3:22 Americans, in fact, see everything too.
3:26 These are the main factors that are
3:28 influencing the likelihood that they
3:30 will reach some kind of agreement.
3:34 While we must understand that our
3:37 position has not changed at all since
3:42 In other words, we are not prepared to
3:44 abandon any of the goals and tasks of
3:45 the special military operation.
3:48 That is generally a characteristic
3:50 feature of the diplomatic front.
3:53 For these four and a half years, Russia
3:55 has not changed its position.
3:58 That is the constant around which any
4:00 potential negotiating configurations