Важное за 20 минут · published 21 h ago ·
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Explosion in Moscow / strikes on Putin's circle – Ukrainian news digest
Удар по окружению Путина / Мощный взрыв в Москве
What the site found
Not propaganda · agenda: Ukraine drones Russia via Baltics
Belief the Pravda network pushes: Ukraine is launching massive drone attacks on Russian energy and civilian infrastructure, often from the Baltic states, while Russia only strikes Ukrainian military targets
A pro-Ukrainian news digest reports a car bombing in Moscow, Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on the Volgograd refinery and a Rostov drone facility, and peace-talk developments.
The video says · at 10:17 · quote checked against the transcript
“Strikes on Russian oil refining are becoming increasingly systematic and precise.”
Strikes on Russian oil refining are becoming increasingly systematic and precise.
The video openly covers Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries from a Ukrainian viewpoint, but it never says they are launched from the Baltics, never frames them as attacks on civilians, and never claims Russia hits only military targets, so it does not bend events in the Pravda agenda's direction.
The Pravda stories it echoes
Closest stories from the Pravda network, by meaning. Each links to the site’s comparison with trusted Lithuanian news.
27 days ago · October 18 night strikes summary: RF and Ukraine news with front and video. Zelenskyy complaints and Rubio's response on Starshield
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2 verified differences
21 days ago · Ukrainian armed forces struck Orleans plant with NATO rockets, regional governor reported
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3 verified differences
6 days ago · Mikhail Onufrienko: Under cover of Kyiv junta's fig leaf, NATO again attacked the Kirishi oil refinery from Baltic territory
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3 verified differences
30 days ago · "Should not have started": Kyiv should have thought about consequences before hitting marketing posters and other objects, Putin noted
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Transcript (en, 931 lines)
0:00 In today’s episode: an explosion in
0:02 Moscow. According to Russian media
0:04 reports, former press secretary for
0:06 Azarov, Sergey Zavorotny, has been
0:07 seriously wounded. He took a wrong turn
0:09 . Recall that just yesterday a car
0:11 exploded in St. Petersburg, where a
0:13 Russian colonel may have been killed.
0:15 The deep rear no longer guarantees
0:17 safety. Volgograd oil refineries under
0:20 attack.
0:21 Reports are coming in that all four
0:23 primary processing units at the
0:25 refueling site have been hit.
0:28 Denis Popovich explains how attacks on
0:30 oil refining strike at the financing of
0:32 the war. In Rostov, according to the
0:34 Navy, Ukrainian Neptunes hit a drone
0:37 production facility, warehouse, and
0:39 service center. We will also show an FPV
0:41 strike on a bridge across the Mius River
0:43 . The Kremlin declares Kostiantynivka
0:45 its own and proposes a humanitarian
0:48 mission. DeepState refutes this; the AFU
0:50 holds the city, and fighting continues.
0:53 Meanwhile, in the Kherson direction,
0:55 according to a serviceman known as Alex
0:57 , Russia is amassing forces to intensify
1:00 hostilities. Kushner and Witkow meet
1:02 with Zelensky after their Moscow visit.
1:04 An agreement on the largest mutual
1:06 prisoner exchange and European
1:08 participation in negotiations has been
1:10 announced, but Bild has published one of
1:13 the Russian "wish-list" plans being
1:15 discussed: the entire Donbas,
1:16 restrictions on Ukrainian ports, and
1:19 Finland's withdrawal from NATO. Kaja
1:21 Kallas warns of a Kremlin trap. Vadym
1:24 Denysenko on the bargaining over
1:25 sanctions and the risks of splitting
1:27 allies. 39 countries sign a declaration
1:30 on European security.
1:33 Now Europe must defend its principles
1:35 against those demanding a return to
1:37 spheres of influence.
1:38 We will show and tell you the main news
1:40 of the day here and now. This is the
1:42 program "20 Minutes, Plus or Minus." I
1:44 am Iryna Uzlova. There is no safe harbor
1:47 left anywhere. Clearing devils out of
1:50 Chertanovo.
1:51 It was in this small Moscow district in
1:53 the south of the city, and on a street
1:56 with the colorful name Kirovogradskaya,
1:58 that a car went to hell.
2:00 A bomb exploded right while the Toyota
2:02 Fortuner SUV was in motion, in which,
2:05 according to Russian media, former press
2:07 secretary for Mykola Azarov, Sergey
2:09 Zavorotny, was traveling. The "
2:11 blood-sucker" isn't what he used to be.
2:13 The man who explained to the public how
2:15 Russia lost Ukraine has ended up a
2:17 protagonist in Russian crime reports.
2:19 According to the Telegram channels Mash
2:21 , Shot, and Astra, the 72-year-old
2:23 Zavorotny was behind the wheel of the
2:25 Toyota Fortuner. The car managed to
2:28 drive about 200 meters after leaving the
2:30 courtyard, then the explosion.
2:32 Mash claims the device was attached
2:34 under the chassis on the driver’s side
2:36 and went off while the vehicle was
2:38 moving.
2:39 According to Russian sources, the man
2:41 survived and managed to get out of the
2:43 SUV on his own, but his injuries are
2:45 horrific. Witnesses called an ambulance
2:47 . The "Cargo 300" has wounds to his back
2:50 , chest, and legs. His condition is
2:52 assessed as critical. Later, information
2:54 appeared in public forums suggesting
2:56 that a gas cylinder might have exploded
2:58 in the car. But it doesn't matter what
3:00 caused it; what matters is who was hit
3:02 by this accidental or intentional—but in
3:04 any case just—strike of divine
3:06 retribution. Zavorotny is a self-styled
3:08 international journalist, publicist, and
3:10 candidate of historical sciences. In the
3:12 2000s, he worked in the Russian State
3:14 Duma; specifically, he headed the press
3:17 service for the Rodina faction, and
3:19 later became the press secretary for
3:20 Mykola "Krovosisi" Azarov, who led the
3:23 Ukrainian government under Viktor
3:24 Yanukovych. He is also a co-author of
3:27 the book "Yanukovych Sold Out, Gas
3:29 Accepted: How Russia Lost Ukraine." It
3:31 covers Yanukovych’s political career and
3:33 working as an advisor to Azarov.
3:35 According to Mash, Zavorotny currently
3:37 holds the position of director of the
3:39 Information Technology Center at the
3:41 Primorsky State Agrarian-Technological
3:43 University. But it turned out to be an
3:45 illusion. They are all intelligence
3:47 agents there. Zavorotny is an officer of
3:49 the Foreign Intelligence Service of the
3:51 Russian Federation. This was mentioned
3:53 in the US Senate Intelligence Committee
3:55 report on Russian interference in the
3:58 2016 American elections. They drew
4:00 attention to an important story.
4:01 Specifically, the document indicated
4:03 that Zavorotny served in military unit
4:06 number 33949, which is affiliated with
4:08 the SVR. Russian media report that a
4:10 criminal case has been opened. However,
4:12 there are no real official details about
4:13 the circumstances of the explosion or
4:15 the condition of the victim. And this is
4:17 already the second such episode in just
4:18 two days. As I told you in our previous
4:20 episode just yesterday—the link is below
4:22 this video—a car exploded in the
4:24 Slavyanka district of Saint Petersburg
4:26 in the morning. Also quite symbolic.
4:29 According to media reports, Colonel
4:31 Andrei Khodykin, Deputy Commander of the
4:33 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army of
4:36 Russia for military-political work, may
4:38 have died there.
4:40 Moscow no longer guarantees a quiet life
4:42 , even for those who long ago moved
4:44 under the protection of the Kremlin, as
4:46 they thought. This is how political
4:48 analyst Taras Zagorodny assesses the car
4:51 bombing that turned former Azarov press
4:53 secretary Sergey Zavorotny into a "
4:55 cargo 300" casualty. He views what
4:56 happened as an element of cognitive
4:58 warfare.
5:00 A strike on the propaganda environment,
5:02 designed to demoralize the enemy and
5:04 influence the information field.
5:06 Zagorodny also sees symbolism in the
5:08 event: a prominent figure in the
5:09 pro-Russian environment, Moscow, and the
5:12 explosion occurring specifically on
5:14 Kirovogradskaya Street. In his words,
5:16 you can feel a distinctly Ukrainian
5:18 sense of humor here. However, this is
5:19 the assessment of a political analyst,
5:21 not confirmed information regarding the
5:23 organizers of the blast. In Zagorodny's
5:25 opinion, Moscow's size makes it easier
5:27 to disappear, but it no longer provides
5:30 a safe haven in the deep rear.
5:32 He also asserts that the Ukrainian side
5:34 strives to conduct such operations with
5:36 a minimum number of collateral
5:38 casualties.
5:39 The main signal for collaborators, the
5:42 analyst believes, is that they will not
5:44 be able to hide from responsibility, and
5:46 such events, he predicts, will continue
5:48 .
5:50 >> I believe this story fits into the logic
5:52 of cognitive warfare, where information
5:54 drops are used to demoralize the enemy.
5:57 But in the car explosion of Sergey
5:59 Zavorotny, the former press secretary of
6:01 Mykola Azarov, one can also sense a
6:03 peculiar Ukrainian sense of humor. It
6:05 seems the organizers showed some
6:07 ingenuity. It is also noteworthy that
6:09 such an operation took place in Moscow,
6:11 a city where the Russian authorities are
6:13 used to feeling safe. At the same time,
6:15 no one intends to stage a mass terrorist
6:18 attack just to eliminate one person. It
6:20 is important that innocent people do not
6:22 get hurt. Obviously, Zavorotny and his
6:24 circle expected that he had already been
6:26 forgotten and that nothing threatened
6:27 him. But, as this story shows, they were
6:30 mistaken.
6:31 >> Dozens of Russian regions have nowhere
6:33 to hide or run from our Ukrainian drones
6:36 1,198 Ukrainian UAVs were allegedly
6:39 intercepted and destroyed by the Russian
6:41 Ministry of Defense—and that’s in just
6:44 12 hours, from 8:00 PM on November 12th
6:47 to 8:00 AM on the 13th, Moscow time. The
6:49 geography of the Ministry of Defense's
6:51 report is devastatingly vast. Astrakhan
6:54 , Belgorod, Bryansk, Vladimir, Volgograd
6:56 , Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk,
6:59 Oryol, Rostov, Ryazan, Saratov, Smolensk
7:01 , Tver, and Tula regions, plus the
7:04 Moscow region, temporarily occupied
7:06 Crimea, and the Black Sea waters. Minus
7:09 the factories and warehouses; even
7:11 though the report traditionally claims
7:13 everything was intercepted and destroyed
7:15 , the consequences at the oil refineries
7:17 cannot be undone by such wording. Friday
7:20 the 13th truly brought a hellish fire to
7:22 the Volgograd oil refinery belonging to
7:25 Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka. It is
7:27 one of the largest refineries in
7:29 southern Russia and a key asset for
7:31 Lukoil in the Volgograd region.
7:32 According to initial assessments by
7:35 geospatial and satellite intelligence
7:37 analysts at Dneprazot and Sincorbus, at
7:40 least two primary oil refining units,
7:42 AVT-1 and AVT-6, were hit. Together,
7:45 they provide about 70%of the facility's
7:47 primary processing capacity.
7:50 Preliminary reports also mentioned
7:52 damage to the tank farm.
7:54 Later, information emerged that all four
7:56 AVT units, as well as secondary
7:58 processing and storage facilities, had
8:01 been hit. The scale of the plant is
8:03 impressive—or was impressive. The
8:05 primary processing capacity of this
8:07 refinery is about 15.7 million tons of
8:09 oil per year. The facility processes
8:12 low-sulfur West Siberian and Lower Volga
8:14 oil, which arrives via the
8:16 Samara-Tikhoretsk pipeline.
8:18 The shipment has set off. Finished
8:21 products are dispatched by rail, road,
8:23 and river. We are talking about a major
8:26 enterprise with an extensive supply
8:27 chain. If the reports of all four units
8:30 being hit are confirmed, the
8:31 consequences for its operations will be
8:33 far more serious than the typical
8:35 Russian "falling debris." Meanwhile,
8:37 Russian motorists are not enjoying the
8:39 atmosphere and have a grim assessment of
8:41 what is happening. Without even needing
8:43 satellite imagery or the Ministry of
8:45 Defense’s victory reports, queues are
8:47 forming at gas stations across the
8:49 Volgograd region. The gasoline fever has
8:51 even reached Astrakhan. That’s how
8:53 things go in a prison-country.
8:55 The TV says everything is under control
8:57 , but drivers prefer to line up at the
9:00 pump, just in case.
9:01 >> So, what's going on there? The news says
9:04 Volgograd was bombed again. Svetly Yar,
9:06 or even Cherny Yar, Raygorod. So, I
9:08 think there are going to be problems
9:10 with gasoline again soon.
9:12 Queues will start, get ready. That’s it
9:15 Please. I just thought about it, and I
9:18 said to myself, I’d better stop at a gas
9:20 station.
9:21 Guys, I arrived at a Lukoil gas station
9:24 on the Airport highway, and I realized
9:26 that quite a few cars had pulled up.
9:29 A small line is forming. News came out
9:32 that the Volgograd refinery had been
9:34 attacked.
9:35 And so, it seems to me, a bit of a rush
9:38 has started among the cars here.
9:41 But don't you worry, everything is fine
9:43 , everything will be okay.
9:45 Just a little, just a few more cars than
9:48 usual.
9:49 >> Damn, why does it have to be like this
9:51 again right when I need to fill up?
9:54 I just pulled in off the road.
9:57 There were about eight cars ahead of me
10:00 I've been driving for two weeks without
10:02 worrying, like everything was back to
10:04 normal, and now this again. That’s why I
10:06 left early today to get gas. So,
10:08 Volgograd, hang in there.
10:11 Some third, fifth, tenth wave again.
10:13 I've lost count already.
10:15 >> There's nothing left to hold onto.
10:17 Strikes on Russian oil refining are
10:19 becoming increasingly systematic and
10:21 precise. Military observer Denis
10:23 Popovich points this out.
10:25 During the attack on Lukoil's Volgograd
10:27 refinery, several parts of the plant
10:30 were hit at once, meaning restoration
10:32 will be harder and longer.
10:35 Less fuel produced, lower tax revenues,
10:37 less money for the Kremlin to pay for
10:39 the war.
10:40 However, don't expect an immediate
10:42 effect on the front lines. The Russian
10:44 army has fuel reserves, Popovich
10:46 stresses, but the pressure on the
10:48 economy is building.
10:51 Russia has to spend budget funds on
10:53 expensive fuel imports—money that could
10:55 otherwise go to the defense industry.
10:59 While propaganda reports about repelled
11:01 attacks, the budget has to pay for the
11:03 consequences.
11:05 >> I believe that launching nearly 1,200
11:07 Ukrainian drones into Russian territory
11:09 in one night is an unprecedentedly
11:11 large-scale attack. It is important to
11:13 consider Russia's vast territory. Drones
11:16 are headed to different regions, so
11:18 their impact is dispersed.
11:20 The Volgograd refinery stands out, as it
11:22 has been attacked for the third time
11:24 this year. This indicates the systematic
11:26 nature of Ukrainian strikes and their
11:28 changing quality. Now, multiple sections
11:31 of a facility are hit in a single attack
11:33 , significantly increasing damage and
11:35 delaying recovery times. As a result,
11:38 Russia produces less fuel and loses tax
11:40 revenue and the ability to fund the war
11:43 . The effect on the front is not
11:44 immediate, as the Russian army has
11:46 reserves, and Russia is already forced
11:49 to increase fuel imports. It creates a
11:51 paradoxical situation.
11:53 A country that is a major oil producer
11:55 itself is forced to buy fuel abroad,
11:57 spending budget funds that could have
11:59 gone to the war.
12:02 >> And in Rostov, they were met by Neptunes
12:04 tonight.
12:05 The Ukrainian Navy reported strikes on
12:07 three facilities linked to the
12:09 production, storage, and maintenance of
12:11 Russian drones. Every night, these
12:13 drones are sent to Ukrainian cities,
12:15 military positions, and energy
12:17 infrastructure. Some are manufactured,
12:19 stored, and repaired right in Rostov. On
12:21 the night of November 13, the response
12:23 arrived: Neptune coastal missile system
12:25 rockets from the Ukrainian Navy. The
12:27 strikes hit the production site for
12:29 tactical strike drones, IONAS LLC, a
12:32 storage site for the same company, and a
12:34 third target—the service center for
12:36 Aerohit LLC, where drones are repaired
12:39 and serviced for the Russian army.
12:41 Aerohit produces Veles strike and
12:43 reconnaissance FPV drones. The
12:45 production itself is in Khabarovsk,
12:47 while the service center is in
12:48 Rostov-on-Don. The strike hit several
12:50 links at once: manufacturing, stockpiles
12:53 , and repairs. The Navy report describes
12:55 the result as follows: some drones will
12:57 not be produced, some burned in the
12:59 warehouse, and the damaged units will
13:01 not be able to return to the front for a
13:03 long time. The Defense Forces emphasize
13:05 that Ukraine is exercising its right to
13:08 self-defense, as provided for in Article
13:10 51 of the UN Charter, and continues to
13:12 undermine the enemy's military-economic
13:14 potential to force Russia to end its
13:16 aggression. To be continued for Russian
13:18 drone manufacturers, and not only them—
13:20 this is a very specific announcement.
13:23 The other day, Rostov air defense also
13:25 tried to shoot down a Ukrainian FPV-2
13:27 drone attacking a bridge across the Mius
13:30 River with profanities, but it did no
13:32 good. This is how the bridge across the
13:34 Mius River in the Neklinovsky District
13:36 of the Rostov Region, still part of the
13:38 Russian Federation, exploded after the
13:40 strike. The bridge is located at the
13:42 ninety-seventh kilometer of the R-280
13:44 Novorossiya highway, which connects
13:46 Rostov-on-Don with the temporarily
13:48 occupied Ukrainian cities of Mariupol,
13:50 Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Simferopol.
13:52 The recording captures the sound of the
13:54 UAV in flight and the operation of
13:55 Russian air defenses. However, the
13:57 operator manages to guide the drone
13:59 exactly to the target. The published
14:00 video likely shows fragments of the
14:02 drone attack on the bridge, which was
14:04 successfully carried out on November 8
14:06 of this year. And while the Russian army
14:08 destroys Ukrainian cities, Russian
14:10 genociders, the world's number one
14:12 terrorist, is once again trying on the
14:14 role of a humanitarian organization. Now
14:17 in Kostiantynivka. Putin's mouthpiece
14:19 Dima Peskov claimed that the Russian
14:21 military allegedly controls the city and
14:23 is ready to clear it of mines in 5 days
14:25 . According to Peskov, Moscow expects to
14:27 conduct a humanitarian mission under the
14:29 leadership of both countries 'ombudsmen
14:31 and under media observation. He also
14:33 claims that the U.S. is sincerely
14:35 interested in such an operation and
14:37 urges Europeans and Americans to use
14:39 their influence on Kyiv.
14:41 The twisted Kremlin logic deserves
14:43 separate attention.
14:45 Peskov claims that if Ukraine warns that
14:47 Russia might use the mission for a troop
14:49 rotation, then Kyiv is supposedly
14:51 acknowledging Russian control over the
14:53 city. That is, he is trying to pass off
14:56 a warning about a possible military ruse
14:58 as an admission of a Russian military
15:00 success that does not exist. First,
15:02 falsely declare the city as your own,
15:04 then offer to clear it of mines, and
15:06 present Ukraine's disagreement as an
15:08 obstacle to humanitarian aid.
15:11 >> Well, indeed, a very important
15:13 humanitarian initiative was voiced
15:15 yesterday in the public part of Putin's
15:17 meeting with American guests.
15:26 This initiative concerns continuing the
15:28 experience gained in Oleshky, aimed at
15:30 giving 400 or 500 civilians who are
15:32 still in Kostiantynivka the opportunity
15:35 to leave that settlement and,
15:37 essentially, go wherever they want.
15:46 If someone wants to leave towards
15:48 Ukraine, someone towards Russia.
15:52 For this, an opportunity must be given
15:54 to clear all access roads in order to
15:57 ensure safety.
16:02 We are calling on both the Americans and
16:04 Europeans, if they are sincere in their
16:07 claims of seeking peace, to use their
16:09 influence to sway the Ukrainians and
16:11 encourage them to carry out this
16:13 humanitarian operation in Kostiantynivka
16:18 >> Putin voiced the idea himself on
16:20 November 12 during a meeting with the
16:22 U.S. presidential special envoy. The
16:24 Russian dictator proposed organizing a
16:25 humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka
16:27 modeled after the one that took place in
16:29 Oleshky, Kherson region. These inhuman
16:31 monsters create humanitarian
16:33 catastrophes, and now he offers to
16:34 discuss how he will save people from
16:36 them. And he does so based on his own
16:38 claim of control over the city, which
16:40 simply does not exist. In fact, there is
16:42 neither control nor a city left, thanks
16:44 to Putin’s "liberation" efforts.
16:45 >> Representatives of the foreign press,
16:47 including American media, as well as
16:49 Russian media outlets.
16:53 Uh, let's assign this to, uh, people who
16:56 deal with human rights on both sides.
17:00 Human rights commissioners. If, as the
17:02 Ukrainian authorities claim, they do not
17:05 control this city, then let them ensure
17:07 security there.
17:09 In my view, uh, this settlement is
17:11 controlled by Russian troops.
17:14 We will ensure security from our side.
17:17 >> Meanwhile, the Office of the President
17:19 of Ukraine has warned of a potential
17:20 military motive behind such initiatives
17:22 . The Russians could use the proposal
17:24 for a mission in Kostiantynivka to
17:25 rotate their military personnel, just as
17:27 they did in Oleshky. By the way, in the
17:28 Kherson direction, Russian forces
17:30 continue to amass troops and accumulate
17:32 resources to intensify combat operations
17:34 , reports a senior lieutenant of the
17:35 Armed Forces of Ukraine with the call
17:37 sign "Alex." According to his data, they
17:39 are moving both elite units and recently
17:41 mobilized soldiers there who haven't
17:43 even had time to complete proper
17:44 training or integration. It is these
17:46 latest recruits who will be the first to
17:48 go into battle, paving the way for the
17:50 elite, literally paving it with their
17:52 own bodies. Active movement of Russian
17:54 artillery firing positions and drone
17:56 operator positions is also being
17:58 recorded.
17:59 This expands the enemy's capability to
18:01 strike the right-bank Kherson region,
18:04 primarily Kherson itself and its
18:06 approaches. Alex emphasizes that this
18:08 development, of course, did not come as
18:10 a surprise. Such a turn of events was
18:12 foreseeable and could be read even
18:13 before the start of the truce. While
18:15 there was talk of a pause in hostilities
18:17 , the threat of a new escalation never
18:19 disappeared. But the withered Putin can
18:22 hide his wet fantasies and ideas in his
18:24 briefcase. According to DeepState,
18:26 Kostiantynivka remains under the control
18:28 of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The
18:30 situation is indeed extremely difficult
18:32 , and active fighting is ongoing, but
18:34 analysts dismiss the Kremlin’s claims of
18:36 Russian control as false. The enemy is
18:38 attempting to infiltrate the city and
18:40 build up forces for its capture. But
18:43 Ukrainian soldiers are repelling these
18:45 attempts and doing everything to hold
18:46 the settlement. At the same time,
18:48 Russian units are trying to bypass
18:50 Kostiantynivka and surround the
18:51 Ukrainian group stationed there. Defense
18:53 forces are countering these actions as
18:55 well. DeepState emphasizes that the best
18:58 humanitarian mission Russia could carry
19:00 out in Kostiantynivka is to stop the
19:02 assaults and shelling, and to halt the
19:04 destruction of a city that the Russian
19:06 army cannot capture. Instead, Putin is
19:09 offering an initiative that analysts say
19:11 could give him an advantage on the
19:12 battlefield.
19:14 They call it hypocrisy and warn that
19:16 agreeing to such terms is not an option
19:18 . The battle for Kostiantynivka
19:20 continues, and statements from the
19:21 Kremlin will not determine its outcome.
19:23 For these hollow victories, Putin is
19:25 paying an unreal price. Avdiivka,
19:27 Pokrovsk, Bakhmut—nearly 40%of all
19:30 Russian military deaths in the war
19:32 against Ukraine. This share is cited in
19:34 a published tally.
19:36 Behind Putin's stories of progress lie
19:38 tens of thousands of people sent to die
19:41 for mere inches of Ukrainian land.
19:43 In the areas of Avdiivka and Pokrovsk,
19:46 according to this data, over 120,500
19:48 deaths have been recorded.
19:51 That is more than double the US losses
19:53 in 8 years of the Vietnam War and eight
19:55 times the Soviet losses in 10 years of
19:57 war in Afghanistan. The report states
20:00 that Russian troops captured Avdiivka in
20:03 February 2024 and Pokrovsk in February
20:05 2026. The battles for these cities
20:07 became some of the bloodiest of the
20:09 entire war. Another 48,000 or so
20:10 perished near Bakhmut. It was there, I
20:13 remind you, that the Russian army and
20:15 Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC, having
20:16 replenished their ranks with prisoners,
20:18 made relentless attacks with huge losses
20:20 the foundation of their tactics. Men
20:22 were sent in waves, blunt and mindless,
20:24 and while propaganda touted military
20:26 successes, the cost of these assaults
20:28 grew by thousands of lives. Meanwhile,
20:30 the peace tracks and incredible efforts
20:32 of Donald Trump are spinning their empty
20:34 wheels. The day before in Dublin,
20:36 Vladimir Zelensky concluded talks with
20:38 Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who
20:40 flew to the Ukrainian president from the
20:42 Russian dictator. After the meeting, the
20:44 parties spoke to the press. Among the
20:46 stated results is an agreement on a
20:47 mutual exchange of prisoners of war and
20:49 Europe's participation in the further
20:51 negotiation process. Kushner announced
20:53 that the agreement on prisoner releases
20:55 had been finalized. Zelensky called the
20:58 upcoming mutual release the largest yet
21:00 and emphasized that returning Ukrainian
21:02 soldiers home is a real result of the
21:04 negotiators' work. The President of
21:06 Ukraine also stated that the meetings in
21:08 Abu Dhabi brought progress and hope for
21:09 ending the war. Next, the teams will
21:11 work on de-escalation and a ceasefire. A
21:13 separate emphasis—Europe. According to
21:16 Zelensky, Ukraine spent two years
21:17 pushing for Europeans to be at the
21:19 negotiating table. Kushner, in turn,
21:21 admitted that without them, no agreement
21:23 is possible. He believes they managed to
21:25 reach an understanding with Putin, and
21:26 that he is willing to try. It sounds
21:28 remarkable, of course. The question of
21:30 Europe participating in discussions
21:32 about its own security is again
21:34 presented as Putin's willingness to
21:35 allow it, by the grace of the sovereign
21:37 . Kushner also spoke about the joint
21:39 work of Zelensky and his team on a
21:41 post-war development plan for Ukraine.
21:43 He called the country's potential and
21:45 his plans incredible, and said issues of
21:47 post-war security for Ukraine and all of
21:49 Europe are being discussed with General
21:51 Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe
21:53 . The American negotiator reported
21:55 significant progress and expressed hope
21:57 for further advancement. Steve Witkoff
21:59 added that Donald Trump intends to lead
22:01 the efforts to end the war. God forbid.
22:04 That is the exact task he gave to him
22:06 and Kushner. The parties are planning
22:08 another meeting, but behind the
22:09 diplomatic optimism remains the main
22:11 question: what demands does Russia bring
22:13 to all these tables? Unrealistic and
22:16 pipe-dream ones: to take the entire
22:18 Donbas, limit the Ukrainian army, remove
22:21 NATO bases from the Baltic states, and
22:23 more, and more. Wait, no. To secure
22:26 Finland's withdrawal from the alliance.
22:28 Such is the set of requirements and
22:30 wishful thinking, according to BILD,
22:31 contained in one of the Russian plans
22:33 discussed in unofficial negotiation
22:35 circles. An important disclaimer from
22:37 the publication itself: this is only one
22:39 of the variants. Whether Putin
22:41 personally supported it is unknown.
22:42 Several groups of intermediaries,
22:44 including those linked to the military,
22:46 are working in parallel, and these
22:47 groups are competing with each other.
22:49 However, the content of these proposals
22:51 is quite telling. Moscow wants to keep
22:53 all occupied Ukrainian territories and
22:55 additionally gain the entire Donbas,
22:56 including parts of the Donetsk and
22:58 Luhansk regions that Ukraine has
23:00 controlled for years. Furthermore, no
23:02 NATO, a non-aligned status for Ukraine,
23:04 a refusal to join the alliance,
23:06 membership in the European Union. At the
23:08 same time, thank God, it is not excluded
23:10 . The ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv are
23:12 proposed to be demilitarized so that
23:14 Ukraine cannot use them as naval bases.
23:16 Agreements on freedom of navigation in
23:18 the Black and Baltic Seas are also
23:20 assumed. But Russian desires, of course
23:22 , do not end at the Ukrainian borders.
23:25 BILD writes about demands for a new
23:26 European security order, which,
23:28 according to the publication, were also
23:30 presented to European participants in
23:32 the Abu Dhabi talks. Russia wants NATO
23:34 to renounce the deployment of military
23:37 bases in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
23:39 , as well as Finland's withdrawal from
23:41 the alliance. That is to say, the
23:43 Kremlin is offering its neighbors a
23:44 revision of their own security in
23:46 accordance with Russian wishes. Moldova
23:48 was also included in this same plan. It
23:50 is proposed to be transformed into a
23:52 federal republic, which would include
23:54 Moldova itself, autonomous Gagauzia, and
23:56 unrecognized Transnistria. And if the
23:58 country joins the European Union,
24:00 Gagauzia and Transnistria, according to
24:02 this proposal, should be given the
24:04 opportunity to hold a referendum on
24:06 independence. What does Moscow offer in
24:08 return? Withdraw nuclear weapons from
24:10 Belarus, if they were there, refrain
24:12 from deploying medium-range missiles
24:14 there, and withdraw Russian troops from
24:16 Transnistria. What? Once again, we are
24:19 talking about a version published by the
24:21 media, not an agreed-upon document. But
24:23 it gives a quite understandable idea of
24:25 the scale of Russian ambitions.
24:28 Under the guise of ending the war in
24:30 Ukraine, the restructuring of the
24:31 security of several states at once is
24:33 being discussed, and according to the
24:35 Russian scenario at that. And against
24:38 this background, it turns out that the
24:40 good-natured Kremlin, wiping away a tear
24:42 , agrees to Europe's participation in
24:44 the negotiations, but so far only
24:45 theoretically, notes Zabell. Peskov
24:47 stated that the door is not closed;
24:49 first, Moscow must assess the real
24:51 intentions of the Europeans, meaning
24:53 Europe is still being asked to prove
24:55 that it is worthy of discussing its own
24:57 security. At the same time, Kushner
24:59 assures that a deal is impossible
25:00 without the Europeans, and Putin is
25:02 ready, ready to involve them in the
25:03 process. According to reports, the
25:05 Americans asked Moscow to outline its
25:07 vision for post-war security, rather
25:09 than develop a detailed architecture for
25:11 it. European officials, in conversations
25:13 , call shifting the focus to this topic
25:15 before the war ends a Putin ploy.
25:17 António Costa reminds us that a security
25:19 architecture already existed, and it was
25:22 Russia—Russia itself—that destroyed it
25:24 with its invasion, yet Europe cannot
25:26 agree on a single negotiator. The
25:28 politician identifies three camps:
25:30 supporters of a common representative
25:31 led by Costa, France and Germany, who do
25:34 not want to cede the Ukrainian front to
25:36 Brussels, and supporters of a hard line
25:38 led by Kaja Kallas. And most importantly
25:40 , do not fall into the Kremlin’s trap,
25:42 warns Kaja Kallas, who suggests not
25:44 losing sight of the main goal: a
25:46 ceasefire. None. Russia continues the
25:49 war, yet is already demanding
25:50 discussions on how the rest of the world
25:53 should restructure its security. The
25:55 head of European diplomacy warns that if
25:57 one starts analyzing Russian demands for
25:59 a new security architecture, one could
26:01 fall right into the trap Moscow is
26:03 setting. Attention will shift from the
26:05 ongoing aggression to the wishes of the
26:07 aggressor itself. Kallas emphasizes that
26:09 there is a state that attacked and a
26:11 state that became the victim of the
26:14 No one attacked Russia; it was the one
26:16 that attacked others.
26:18 Her message to the discussion
26:20 participants sounds extremely direct:
26:22 people, get a grip.
26:25 >> If we start talking about what Russia
26:27 demands regarding security architecture
26:29 , we are effectively falling into the
26:31 trap it is setting for us, namely, to
26:32 distract us from the fact that a
26:34 ceasefire has yet to happen.
26:37 And as a result, we start listening to
26:39 their demands.
26:40 Therefore, let us focus on what is right
26:42 in front of our eyes.
26:44 We have one aggressor and one victim.
26:47 And the aggressor has no security
26:49 concerns, because no one has ever
26:50 attacked them.
26:52 They attacked others. Get a grip, people
26:55 >> We must not get involved in these
26:57 psychological games.
26:59 If Russia poses a threat to Europe, then
27:01 the last thing you should do is discuss
27:03 how to organize your security
27:04 architecture with the one who is
27:06 threatening you. The position of common
27:08 sense was also voiced by Estonian Prime
27:10 Minister Kaja Kallas. He is quoted by
27:12 Bloomberg. The politician linked the
27:14 intensification of negotiations to the
27:15 crushing election defeat for the
27:17 Republican Party in the US. In his
27:19 opinion, American negotiators will now
27:21 desperately try to reach some kind of
27:23 agreement before power in Congress
27:25 shifts to the Democrats. The Kremlin
27:26 demands the entire Donbas and the
27:28 withdrawal of military bases from the
27:30 Baltic states, as if the state of the
27:32 Russian army and economy still allows it
27:34 to dictate terms to the whole world.
27:36 Journalist and host Dmitry Gordon calls
27:38 these ultimatums unfeasible and
27:40 ridiculous, and negotiations with Putin
27:42 at the current stage empty. According to
27:44 his assessment, blackmail lies behind
27:46 the Russian demands. Putin is trying to
27:49 extract concessions from the US and
27:51 Europe and buy time to regroup forces.
27:53 At the same time, Gordon is convinced
27:55 that no agreements will stop the Russian
27:57 economy’s movement toward collapse.
27:59 While the Kremlin bargains for foreign
28:01 territories and spheres of influence,
28:03 problems within Russia itself continue
28:05 to pile up.
28:06 >> And you can see how they are raising the
28:08 stakes.
28:10 So, according to leaks from the
28:12 negotiations, what does Putin want?
28:17 Putin says we must return to the NATO
28:20 structure of 1997.
28:23 Listen, these guys are already drowning
28:27 They are already gasping for air.
28:30 The ground is burning beneath their feet
28:33 The economy is sinking altogether.
28:35 On the front, there is nothing, not even
28:38 a hint or prospect of advancement.
28:42 And they say: "Give us the Donbas." But
28:44 you can't even take it. "Just give it up
28:46 .""Hand over the Donbas." You know what
28:48 ? "And remove, uh, military bases from
28:51 Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia." And
28:53 another thing, you know what? "Let
28:55 Finland exit NATO entirely."
28:59 Well, such an ultimatum, an ultimatum,
29:02 uh, for Europe and Zelenskyy.
29:06 Look, I'm laughing, but it's genuinely
29:08 funny. Do they think this, uh, Russian
29:11 audacity, Russian impudence, Russian
29:13 aggression, will just go through like
29:15 that? No, it's a different time now.
29:17 Europe has understood everything,
29:19 everyone has understood everything.
29:21 >> Political analyst Vadym Denysenko
29:22 suggests evaluating Putin's agreement to
29:24 European participation without illusions
29:26 . In his view, Moscow's goal is to
29:28 secure the lifting of sanctions in
29:30 exchange for security guarantees and
29:32 allowing American companies to act as
29:34 intermediaries for Russian goods.
29:36 Therefore, Europe's involvement was
29:38 predetermined, but European weakness and
29:40 the bias of the American side allowed
29:43 Putin to present his consent as almost a
29:45 royal favor. Like I said, the sovereign
29:48 . The main problem, Denysenko believes,
29:50 is not the name of the European
29:52 negotiator, but their mandate. Ukraine's
29:54 allies are torn between the desire to
29:56 end the war due to financial and
29:58 electoral pressures and the fear of
29:59 further Russian aggression after it
30:01 concludes. This contradiction, the
30:03 analyst warns, creates a risk of
30:05 fracturing the pro-Ukrainian coalition
30:07 in the coming months. Putin has his own
30:09 doublethink. He wants to trade with
30:11 Europe while simultaneously demanding
30:13 spheres of influence and threatening war
30:14 . This restrains European capitals but,
30:17 according to Denysenko, only slows the
30:19 coalition's fragmentation. Kyiv, the
30:21 analyst believes, also needs to change
30:23 its approach. Living by the templates of
30:25 2022 is no longer possible. Europe will
30:27 not be able to indefinitely accept
30:29 everyone in need, provide all necessary
30:31 funds, and maintain Putin's isolation.
30:33 Ukraine needs to work with its allies to
30:35 redefine common red lines. And they are
30:37 already shifting. And in five or six
30:39 months, the question will be: Are we
30:41 involved in decision-making, or are we
30:43 watching the deals of others? Therefore
30:46 , Denysenko suggests expanding the
30:47 circle of partners. Turkey, Egypt, Saudi
30:50 Arabia, and other countries also fear a
30:52 world where the strong are permitted to
30:54 subjugate the weak. On this basis, the
30:56 analyst believes, one can seek allies
30:58 while simultaneously breaking China's
31:00 strategy. His conclusion: expand the
31:02 chessboard and act based on the
31:05 realities of 2026, not 2022. And yet,
31:07 Europe is attempting to formulate a
31:09 common position at the summit in Dublin
31:11 on November 11–12. 39 countries have
31:14 signed a European security declaration
31:16 proposed by France. Macron has urged
31:18 Europeans to develop their own peace
31:20 plan. The document's main principle is
31:22 that decisions on Europe's security must
31:24 be made with its participation. The
31:26 signatories reaffirmed their support for
31:27 Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial
31:29 integrity within internationally
31:31 recognized borders and the need for
31:32 effective security guarantees. The
31:34 declaration also addresses strengthening
31:36 European defense, especially on the
31:38 eastern flank, and freedom of navigation
31:39 , including in the Black Sea. Europe has
31:41 sent empires and spheres of influence to
31:43 the scrap heap of history. We will never
31:45 allow them to be revived, stated António
31:47 Costa. Let me remind you that it is
31:49 Russia that is undermining European
31:50 security. The document was supported by
31:52 39 out of 47 countries of the European
31:54 Political Community, including Ukraine,
31:56 the UK, Norway, Moldova, Georgia, and
31:57 all EU states except Bulgaria. The
31:59 position has been established. Now it
32:01 must be defended at the negotiating
32:02 table. Meanwhile, Moscow demands spheres
32:05 of influence, while Ukraine pays for
32:06 Russian ambitions with human lives. The
32:09 whims of a sovereign are law for the
32:10 subjects, but more often than not, these
32:13 blind fancies turn out to be a death
32:14 sentence for the state itself.
32:17 What is born in the sick imagination of
32:19 an absolute ruler as a fleeting desire,
32:22 history inevitably turns into ruins.
32:24 Michel de Montaigne, Irina Uzlova—our
32:26 program is 20:30 minutes long. Join us
32:28 on Monday, and in the meantime,
32:30 subscribe to YouTube 24 and my YouTube
32:32 channel, Uzlova Talks. Take care of
32:33 yourselves, see you soon, and we will
32:35 win.
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