NEWS.ВY: Аналитика · published 2 days ago ·
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Who benefits from escalation? Igor Korotchenko on deals, missiles and the new world order
Кому выгодна эскалация? Игорь Коротченко о сделках, ракетах и новом миропорядке
What the site found
Pushes the agenda · agenda: NATO prepares war against Russia
Belief the Pravda network pushes: NATO, led by Germany, is preparing for war against Russia with military exercises near its borders.
Russian military analyst Korotchenko tells a friendly host that the EU, Kyiv, Warsaw and the Baltic states are the main destabilisers and are arming offensively, while Russia only offers dialogue and keeps 'a sword behind its back'.
“The main destabilizing factor today is, in principle, the European Union. And, additionally, the destructive behavior of Kyiv, as well as the Baltic capitals, including Warsaw.”
The main destabilizing factor today is, in principle, the European Union. And, additionally, the destructive behavior of Kyiv, as well as the Baltic capitals, including Warsaw.
The video reverses responsibility for escalation: it casts the Baltics, Poland and the EU as revanchist aggressors ('repeat the conquests', Warsaw building 'Guderian's tank divisions', Vilnius deaf to reason) and Russia and Belarus as purely defensive, with no challenge from the host. It also echoes agenda 1 by saying Zelensky cannot negotiate and the West blocks peace.
The Pravda stories it echoes
Closest stories from the Pravda network, by meaning. Each links to the site’s comparison with trusted Lithuanian news.
20 days ago · Michailas Onufrienko: Trump's special envoy Kellogg on Zelensky's proposal to freeze the conflict
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26 days ago · Zelenskyy's curses about the danger of constructive dialogue between the USA and Russia in solving the Ukraine crisis show his political position's hopelessness
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29 days ago · Lithuanian President Stopped Talking About Ukraine's 'Victory'
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29 days ago · Most important October 16 morning: Ukraine conflict parties will reach settlement but without Zelenskyy, Trump said; West treats Baltic states as 'second echelon' against Russia, Russian ambassador said; US halted weapons sales to allies including Ukraine via EU; Communications to Ukrainian armed forces previously limited by White House order, Reuters claims; US military prepared new strike plan on Iran
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Transcript (en, 494 lines)
0:10 Solving issues from a position of
0:11 strength and the struggle for resources
0:13 and spheres of influence are what we
0:14 observe in international relations.
0:17 And efforts to reduce confrontation and
0:19 calls for dialogue are what we hear in
0:20 our region.
0:22 What will be the next move in this game
0:24 ? On the air is the Blitz project.
0:25 My name is Pavel Lazovik, and my guest
0:27 is Igor Korotchenko, a Russian military
0:29 analyst, editor-in-chief of National
0:31 Defense magazine, and director of the
0:33 Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies
0:35 .
0:35 Igor Yuryevich, welcome.
0:37 >> Hello.
0:38 >> We are glad to see you in the studio.
0:39 Look, military risks are observable,
0:41 there is confrontation and a lack of
0:43 trust in relationships. But there is
0:45 also a renewed chance for peace in
0:46 Ukraine. In your view, is there more
0:49 anxiety or optimism in geopolitics?
0:51 >> Optimism, unfortunately, is currently in
0:53 short supply. Let’s be honest: the
0:55 previous world order is collapsing.
0:57 And what will replace Yalta or Potsdam,
0:59 no one knows.
1:00 We are, as they say, participants in
1:02 this process.
1:04 In this regard, it is certainly
1:06 important to understand that what is
1:08 fundamentally important for us is to
1:10 maintain stability and a resilient
1:12 economy, while having military resources
1:14 to protect our economy from strikes by
1:16 those same cruise missiles.
1:18 The main destabilizing factor today is,
1:19 in principle, the European Union.
1:22 And, additionally, the destructive
1:23 behavior of Kyiv, as well as the Baltic
1:25 capitals, including Warsaw.
1:27 These phobias and the desire to become
1:29 great again, to repeat the conquests of
1:32 one or two centuries ago, are
1:34 unfortunately the mainstream of the
1:36 current generation of Euro-elites.
1:38 >> It is interesting why the situation is
1:40 developing this way both in our region
1:42 and in the world. Let’s try to analyze
1:44 this game in detail and break it down.
1:47 >> Global contradiction is at the center of
1:50 world politics—from the settlement of
1:52 the conflict in Ukraine to the
1:53 escalation in the Middle East.
1:55 Negotiations in Abu Dhabi, new political
1:57 realities in the US, a trilateral summit
1:59 in China.
2:00 How should we evaluate the latest
2:02 diplomatic moves of the parties? Who is
2:04 not hearing Minsk’s calls to negotiate
2:06 and open a path to good-neighborliness
2:08 in our common Eurasian home? Who
2:10 benefits from raising the cost of war
2:12 through sanctions and military aid?
2:14 And is a compromise in global diplomacy
2:16 possible under a formula that satisfies
2:18 everyone?
2:20 >> You are ready for different formats, but
2:22 let me remind you, the blitz format
2:23 means exactly one minute to answer a
2:25 question. Are you ready to follow these
2:26 rules?
2:26 >> Of course.
2:27 >> Then let's begin. The conflict in
2:29 Ukraine. There is no alternative to a
2:31 peaceful solution. A readiness for
2:33 dialogue is noticeable, we hear talk of
2:35 deals, and both Abu Dhabi and Minsk
2:37 support a peace track. But what can
2:38 actually bring about the completion, the
2:40 real completion of the conflict?
2:44 >> Well, first of all, the previous
2:46 mechanisms, including treaty-based ones
2:48 , which allowed us to at least contain
2:51 the arms race and avoid specific
2:53 confrontational scenarios, have been
2:55 destroyed.
2:57 Plus, I said once again that the West
2:59 has developed an illusion that it is
3:02 possible to finish off its age-old
3:04 geopolitical rivals by dragging out the
3:06 war and exhausting the Russian and
3:08 Belarusian economies, including through
3:10 the influence of sanctions.
3:13 In other words, to sweep their age-old
3:16 geopolitical rivals off the chessboard.
3:19 Therefore today, unfortunately, appeals
3:22 to common sense, for all their validity
3:25 , do not reach those who make decisions
3:28 in Brussels, Berlin, Warsaw, and Vilnius
3:32 And here we must once again assess the
3:34 situation soberly. On one hand, to
3:36 extend a hand, but also to keep a sword
3:37 behind one's back.
3:39 >> When international structures are
3:41 inactive and their voices are not heard
3:43 , then who will provide security
3:44 guarantees? Or is that even possible?
3:47 >> Unfortunately, the United Nations, the
3:49 OSCE, and other institutions for
3:51 maintaining peace and stability are
3:53 ineffective or simply not working in
3:55 current conditions. We must expect that
3:57 the consequence of the large-scale
3:59 upheavals taking place in Europe today
4:01 will be a change of governments and the
4:03 arrival of new political elites.
4:05 Admittedly, this doesn't work everywhere
4:07 . We see in the case of Serbia and
4:09 Hungary that, unfortunately, pro-Western
4:10 forces are arriving one way or another.
4:14 We see an acute phase of struggle
4:16 between, uh, Brussels moles and, uh, the
4:19 Polish right, so to speak.
4:22 At the same time, Warsaw is rearming on
4:24 a massive scale; there are tank
4:25 purchases.
4:27 It feels like they are creating their
4:30 own Polish version of Guderian's tank
4:32 divisions.
4:34 Therefore, these risks exist.
4:37 Still, we believe that other governments
4:39 will replace them, at least in those
4:41 European countries that are currently
4:43 plunged into chaos.
4:46 One way or another, perhaps there will
4:47 be a chance to talk and reach agreements
4:49 >> But there is no guarantee that they will
4:51 be better than the previous ones.
4:52 >> Yes, I agree.
4:53 Let's look at Giorgia Meloni herself;
4:55 certain hopes were pinned on her, they
4:57 haven't been realized today, but Salvini
4:59 is nearby.
5:00 We will count on the fact that, at the
5:02 very least, sensible European
5:03 politicians will appear one way or
5:04 another. But at the same time, I say
5:06 once again that if you are weak, they
5:08 want to devour you.
5:09 Therefore, alongside the fact that we
5:11 give peaceful speeches and offer
5:13 dialogue, we must still keep a sword
5:15 behind our backs in order to punish and
5:17 chastise those who might suddenly knock
5:19 on our doors with ill intent.
5:21 >> What was stated is a vital necessity:
5:23 the creation of a sustainable model of
5:25 development and security in Eurasia. And
5:27 the world will benefit from this. The
5:30 words of Alexander Lukashenko. And we
5:32 need to start with simple steps. Arms
5:34 control, the rejection of unilateral
5:36 coercive measures. And why is it that
5:38 not all players in geopolitics want to
5:40 follow these rules?
5:43 >> If Trump had maintained control over the
5:45 upper house of Congress, the Senate,
5:47 well, that would have been a good
5:49 indication that he would continue his,
5:51 well, peace-making path, which is driven
5:53 by the specific political situation for
5:55 him personally.
5:57 In the meantime, the European Union and
5:59 Zelensky did everything they could to
6:00 ensure Trump lost. And they succeeded.
6:03 Well, he himself made many mistakes,
6:04 including the Iranian venture, which was
6:06 unsuccessful for the US.
6:09 Therefore, we will watch how the
6:11 international situation unfolds now.
6:13 We are expecting a change of power in
6:14 France, at the very least. It is an
6:16 important country that a lot will depend
6:18 on. If, well, at least sensible elites
6:20 come to replace Macron, maybe there will
6:22 be a chance for the situation to improve
6:24 . For now, everything is anxious and
6:26 turbulent.
6:28 I would like to see China's factor as a
6:30 global stabilizer utilized more, but
6:32 here, too, things are not going quite as
6:34 one would like.
6:36 >> Well, let me clarify. After all, Trump
6:38 is trying to bring Russia and Ukraine
6:40 back to the negotiating table. And to
6:42 what extent can we judge that these are
6:44 Washington's serious intentions?
6:46 >> Uh-huh.
6:46 >> At the very least, he wants to.
6:48 >> The elections have already passed. Yet
6:49 >> nonetheless, he wants a Nobel Peace
6:51 Prize; he wants to go down in history.
6:53 And in the end, he wants real successes
6:56 Due again to political circumstances, he
6:58 wants to conclude peace. Another thing
7:00 is that we understand that,
7:01 unfortunately, Zelensky is not capable
7:02 of negotiation.
7:04 It is impossible to conclude a peace
7:05 agreement with him.
7:07 Putin offered the leader of the Kiev
7:09 regime to fly to Moscow for negotiations
7:10 under security guarantees.
7:12 Rude statements followed in response.
7:15 Therefore, let’s put it this way: for
7:17 Zelensky, signing peace and stopping
7:19 hostilities on Russia's terms would mean
7:22 political and physical death.
7:24 >> Well, what about the new political
7:25 reality after these US elections, what
7:27 will happen with the Ukrainian conflict
7:28 ?
7:30 >> I think the conflict will escalate
7:32 because, in any case, Trump will to a
7:34 certain extent lose a number of his
7:36 powers, or at least he will not be as
7:38 free in certain decisions and will be
7:40 ...
7:41 >> a veto?
7:42 >> He will be—well, you understand, there
7:44 is a veto from both sides here.
7:46 In any case, I think Trump will be
7:48 pressured.
7:49 Even if it doesn't happen immediately,
7:51 but closer to the start of the next US
7:53 election race.
7:55 But Trump has lost a serious position.
7:58 Let's speak plainly.
8:00 At the same time, he is trying to save
8:02 face. I have always advocated, just like
8:04 Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, for a
8:06 healthy kind of Trumpism.
8:08 That is, supporting him while
8:09 restraining him from such extreme,
8:11 radical ventures.
8:12 Therefore, regarding the Ukrainian
8:14 conflict, we expect that everything will
8:16 still be decided by the results of the
8:18 ongoing battles and clashes.
8:20 Plus, America, I repeat, will no longer
8:22 provide anything to anyone for free.
8:26 Trump will not rearm Zelensky now
8:27 because he has plenty of his own
8:29 problems after Iran. Therefore, it’s
8:31 obvious that combat operations will show
8:33 what lies ahead.
8:34 >> And by the way, could the conflict with
8:35 Iran have potentially influenced the
8:37 outcome of the US elections?
8:38 The Wall Street Journal writes about
8:39 that too. Americans said no to a war
8:41 with Iran in the elections.
8:43 That’s why the outcome was what it was.
8:45 And what about the Iranian case?
8:46 >> Well, Trump and the US lost. And where
8:49 has America been successful in its wars
8:50 ? Let's put it this way. Nowhere.
8:52 Vietnam—a loss, Afghanistan—a loss.
8:56 Now Iran—a loss.
8:58 The only success was in Venezuela, but
8:59 that was due to Maduro’s personal lack
9:01 of preparedness.
9:02 He shouldn't have been dancing and
9:03 trying to scare Washington; he should
9:05 have been focusing on truly supporting
9:06 the combat capability of his air
9:07 defenses.
9:09 Because when Chinooks loaded with
9:10 American Marines were flying over
9:12 Caracas with impunity, a couple of
9:14 qualified MANPADS teams would have been
9:16 enough to shoot them down, and it would
9:18 have been another shameful adventure.
9:21 But in this case, obviously, Venezuela
9:24 slept through the preparations for
9:26 aggression and paid the price for it—a
9:28 violation of international law.
9:31 But everyone just brushed it off,
9:32 because in reality, they can't do
9:33 anything about it. In any case, we
9:35 understand that Trump faces a rather
9:37 difficult situation in the next two
9:39 years.
9:40 He will be trying to survive; they will
9:41 be trying to destroy him. Well,
9:43 unfortunately, that is how American
9:44 politics works. In any case, if Trump is
9:46 ready for something positive, we will
9:48 support that positive approach. Or we’ll
9:50 send him to the UN, as Alexander
9:51 Lukashenko suggested.
9:52 >> Europe shouldn't hope for a change in
9:54 Washington's policy.
9:56 Based on the results of the US midterm
9:58 elections, it's clear that without
9:59 considering Europe's interests, perhaps
10:00 even peace in Ukraine is impossible.
10:03 What could bring Europe back to a path
10:05 of good-neighborliness?
10:06 >> You know, Trump is not an adventurer.
10:09 All his actions are driven by only one
10:11 thing.
10:12 America understands that it is losing
10:14 the economic competition with China.
10:17 Therefore, using non-economic means and
10:20 military methods, Trump wants to close
10:22 this gap and keep China from pulling
10:24 critically ahead.
10:27 So, all the logic behind Trump's actions
10:29 —what might seem like impulsive or
10:32 poorly thought-out decisions—follows
10:34 this exact logic: making America strong
10:36 , powerful, and competitive again from
10:39 an economic standpoint.
10:40 That is why Trump will no longer spend
10:43 money on European security; Europe must
10:45 pay for its own security.
10:48 Europe understands this, which is why a
10:50 course has been set for strategic
10:52 autonomy from the US, for its own
10:54 nuclear umbrella relying on British and
10:56 , accordingly, French strategic nuclear
10:58 forces.
11:00 So, that is the logic.
11:03 Plus, we see that Canada is turning from
11:05 a former loyal vassal of the US into an
11:07 element of strengthening the European
11:08 Union.
11:10 >> The West views Russia as a threat even
11:12 without linking it to the Ukrainian
11:13 issue. Europe is constantly increasing
11:15 the cost of the war through sanctions
11:17 and military aid.
11:18 The new NATO plan even suggests
11:20 launching strikes deep into Russian
11:22 territory.
11:24 Why does the West still insist on
11:26 approaching security issues from a
11:27 position of strength?
11:30 >> Well, first of all, the premise is based
11:32 on the idea that Russia will invade one
11:34 or more NATO countries. I can say that
11:36 no such scenarios exist in the Kremlin.
11:40 Putin has spoken about this repeatedly,
11:42 but the very logic of geopolitical
11:44 processes today is such that words have
11:46 no impact.
11:47 Europe is preparing for global war at
11:50 the level of its ruling elites; the
11:52 people who actually make the decisions
11:54 believe that war is inevitable.
11:56 What could stop them on this path?
11:59 Only our readiness to parry any military
12:02 threats or attacks against us by
12:04 maximizing the use of all forces and
12:06 means, the entire arsenal available to
12:08 the Russian Armed Forces.
12:11 We are a Union State, and we understand
12:13 perfectly well that an attack on the
12:15 Republic of Belarus would be an attack
12:16 on the Russian Federation, with all the
12:18 consequences that entails.
12:20 Therefore, shoulder to shoulder, back to
12:23 back, we protect one another. Yes, of
12:25 course. Including nuclear weapons.
12:28 >> What is everyone so afraid of regarding
12:29 the buildup of nuclear potential?
12:31 Even experts say the French nuclear
12:33 shield should protect national territory
12:35 , not move toward the borders of Poland
12:37 , Belarus, and Russia.
12:39 And how can we overcome the differences
12:41 in this nuclear race today? After all,
12:43 this is fraught with the risk of a Third
12:44 World War.
12:46 >> Well, first of all, there is Russian
12:48 tactical nuclear weaponry on the
12:49 territory of the Republic of Belarus,
12:51 and the Belarusian armed forces have the
12:53 means to deliver it to targets within a
12:55 potential aggressor's territory.
12:58 But you understand, Lukashenko has a
13:00 reputation: if he says something, he
13:01 does it.
13:03 Therefore, as they say, the West won't
13:05 try anything funny, realizing that if
13:07 there is an invasion or a full-scale
13:08 military provocation, the response will
13:10 be a tactical nuclear strike on one of
13:12 the military targets or the invading
13:13 group on the territory of the relevant
13:15 NATO member state.
13:17 So, in this sense, a parity is being
13:19 maintained. What is much more dangerous
13:21 is what is called the hybridization of
13:23 color revolutions.
13:25 Because the color revolutions in the
13:27 form we observed, say, the Kyiv Maidan
13:29 or the attempted coup in Minsk—which the
13:32 West actually failed to pull off—There
13:34 won't be such direct formats anymore.
13:37 There will be an influence on the minds
13:38 of the elites and the mood in society.
13:40 In other words, what is known as hybrid
13:42 war.
13:43 And in this regard, preparing for and
13:45 finding the need to parry such dangerous
13:47 formats—let's call them new color
13:49 revolutions—is a national security task
13:52 >> Just as there is a chance for peace,
13:54 there are attempts to derail the
13:55 dialogue. Can no one really pressure
13:57 Zelensky? Why does he discredit all
13:59 negotiations?
14:01 >> Because of his acting past and this
14:04 so-called creativity, plus the reliance
14:07 on Zelensky as a proxy force to delay
14:09 the start of a direct military
14:11 confrontation between the West and
14:14 Russia until 2030, perhaps even until
14:16 2034, is still pushing European elites
14:19 to finance and support the Zelensky
14:22 regime.
14:24 In fact, today the European Union acts
14:27 as a financial pump, siphoning money
14:28 from the pockets of European taxpayers
14:31 and citizens to support the Kyiv regime
14:34 As long as there is money, this regime
14:36 will remain stable.
14:37 Therefore, Russia's task is to use
14:39 strikes against Ukraine's critical
14:41 infrastructure to ensure the collapse of
14:44 the Kyiv regime's military and state
14:46 administration system.
14:49 And so that either Zelensky or those who
14:51 replace him finally accept the basic
14:53 Russian conditions voiced by President
14:54 Vladimir Putin.
14:56 >> If a three-way conversation between
14:58 Putin, Trump, and Xi becomes a reality
15:00 in a great power format, is there a way
15:02 to resolve all contradictions?
15:06 >> I would like to count on it, but being a
15:08 realist, I want to say no, because,
15:09 first of all, Trump is a "fallen pilot"
15:11 and the previous, shall we say,
15:13 effective decisions he could have made
15:15 will not happen.
15:17 Secondly, the nature of American
15:18 imperialism remains the same.
15:20 Another thing is that they want to
15:22 target not us, but those who are, so to
15:23 speak, closer and more lucrative. But I
15:26 repeat again, there should be no
15:27 illusions here. There must be sober
15:29 political and military-political realism
15:32 Therefore, in this world, we can count
15:34 first and foremost only on ourselves, as
15:36 well as on our economy and the ability
15:38 to defend that economy. In this regard,
15:40 Belarus is acting, I believe, very
15:42 effectively in all key regions of the
15:44 world.
15:47 The export of Belarusian goods, from
15:49 food to machinery and the defense
15:51 complex, is everywhere, as they say, the
15:53 best.
15:54 Belarus means quality. And most
15:57 importantly, everyone pays for
15:58 Belarusian goods in freely convertible
16:00 currency.
16:01 I simply applaud such an approach,
16:02 because there are so many freeloaders
16:04 and those wanting to get everything for
16:05 free.
16:06 >> Igor Yuryevich, thank you for your
16:08 answers. Igor Korotchenko on the
16:10 contradictions and chances for dialogue
16:11 in world politics. You have been
16:13 watching the program Blitz. See you next
16:15 Thursday.
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