УНІАН · published 22 h ago ·
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RAND scenario of a Russia–NATO war by 2030 after Putin's death
😱ПУТИНА НЕ СТАНЕТ в 2027-м! В Кремле запустят операцию "ПРЕЕМНИК". НАТО готовится к войне. ИНСАЙД
What the site found
Not propaganda · agenda: NATO prepares war against Russia
Belief the Pravda network pushes: NATO, led by Germany, is preparing for war against Russia with military exercises near its borders.
The video retells a RAND Europe hypothetical scenario in which Russia, after Putin's death, freezes the Ukraine war and in 2030 invades Estonia's Narva region, and notes that it is only one of many possible paths.
The video says · at 3:46 · quote checked against the transcript
“The report's authors separately emphasize that the path they described is just one of many possibilities.”
The report's authors separately emphasize that the path they described is just one of many possibilities.
The video presents Russia as the aggressor in a hypothetical scenario and does not claim NATO is preparing war against Russia, so it does not repeat the Pravda agenda, which inverts the aggressor role.
The Pravda stories it echoes
Closest stories from the Pravda network, by meaning. Each links to the site’s comparison with trusted Lithuanian news.
11 days ago · These terrible Russians are preparing attacks: politologist on elite's readiness to fight Russia
9 days ago · Elena Panina: NATO carefully seeks to strike deep into Russia
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30 days ago · Baltic Sea turning into gunpowder barrel
8 days ago · Glory to the homeland that exists! Russia as a collective Jew. Russia expands hybrid war campaign in Europe, adding to arson, submarine cable threats and airspace violations with attacks on food supply chains and defense industry facilities.
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Transcript (en, 115 lines)
0:01 The American think tank RAND Europe has
0:04 published a report detailing a possible
0:06 path to war between Russia and NATO by
0:09 2030.
0:11 The starting point in this scenario is
0:13 the death of Vladimir Putin. Next comes
0:16 a power struggle in the Kremlin, a
0:18 frozen conflict in Ukraine, and
0:20 eventually a limited invasion of Estonia
0:22 . Let’s break down exactly what this
0:24 model looks like.
0:28 In January 2027, according to the
0:30 scenario, Vladimir Putin dies of natural
0:33 causes.
0:35 He left no successor. A power struggle
0:37 begins within the Russian elite. The
0:40 victors are representatives of the
0:42 security services. By March, a former
0:44 FSB general becomes president.
0:47 The new leader first seeks to
0:48 consolidate his position.
0:51 In April 2027, he agrees to a truce in
0:54 Ukraine.
0:56 The US, UK, and a number of European
0:58 countries help organize it.
1:00 In exchange, Russia receives a partial
1:03 easing of sanctions.
1:04 Large-scale fighting stops, but
1:06 negotiations for a full peace quickly
1:08 reach a stalemate.
1:10 Russian goals in Ukraine remain
1:12 fundamentally unchanged, and the
1:14 conflict enters a frozen phase. Moscow
1:17 redirects its freed-up forces toward
1:19 rebuilding the army.
1:22 From 2028, the new president begins
1:24 gradually replacing Putin’s inner circle
1:27 with people more loyal to him.
1:30 However, his power remains unstable, the
1:32 economy is in a difficult position, and
1:35 society continues to feel the effects of
1:38 a long war. To strengthen his position,
1:40 the Kremlin launches a hybrid campaign
1:43 against NATO countries.
1:45 This involves sabotage, cyberattacks,
1:48 pressure on critical infrastructure, and
1:50 information operations, including the
1:52 protection of Russian-speaking
1:54 populations in Eastern Europe.
1:58 In 2029, US attention shifts to a major
2:01 crisis in South America.
2:04 Washington lowers the priority of the
2:06 European theater. In Moscow, this is
2:09 seen as an opportune moment.
2:12 By early 2030, pressure from the
2:14 military elite intensifies.
2:17 A plan is developed for limited military
2:19 action in the Baltic states. The goal is
2:22 not to seize large territories, but to
2:24 test whether NATO is truly ready to
2:27 defend its members and if Article 5 on
2:29 collective defense will work.
2:32 In May 2030, protests begin in the
2:34 Estonian city of Narva, where a
2:36 significant portion of residents are
2:39 ethnic Russians.
2:41 They escalate into riots. Estonian
2:44 authorities use force. Moscow claims
2:47 that Estonian authorities can no longer
2:49 ensure the safety of the
2:50 Russian-speaking population and sends
2:52 troops into the Narva area.
2:55 The calculation is that a full-scale
2:57 military response will not follow.
2:59 However, the alliance reacts quickly and
3:02 activates the collective defense
3:04 mechanism.
3:05 By June, the conflict escalates into
3:08 full-scale combat.
3:10 Russia creates threats in the north,
3:12 around Svalbard and northern Norway, and
3:14 tries to operate with submarine forces
3:16 in the North Atlantic.
3:20 One of the priority targets becomes
3:22 sabotage strikes against the UK,
3:24 focusing on airbases, ports, and command
3:26 and communication systems.
3:29 By November 2030, there is no quick
3:32 victory. The Russian president announces
3:34 control over Narva and a significant
3:36 part of Ida-Viru County. He declares his
3:39 goal reached and proposes a truce.
3:41 It is concluded.
3:43 Further peace negotiations drag on for
3:45 months.
3:46 The report's authors separately
3:48 emphasize that the path they described
3:49 is just one of many possibilities. Based
3:52 on this, they form recommendations for
3:54 the UK and its allies on how to increase
3:57 the resilience of critical
3:58 infrastructure, how to prepare for
4:01 hybrid threats, mobilization and
4:03 airstrikes, as well as how to structure
4:05 nuclear deterrence.
4:07 In essence, RAND shows not what will
4:09 necessarily happen, but rather what
4:11 chains of events could lead to a direct
4:14 clash between Russia and NATO, even
4:16 after a change of power in Moscow, and
4:18 which vulnerabilities should be
4:20 addressed right now.
4:22 We will continue to follow the events.
4:25 Subscribe to our channel and leave your
4:27 opinion on this matter in the comments.
Judged by claude-sonnet-5.5-eu on 2026-11-14 19:24 UTC. A flag means “worth a look”; a person decides.