0:00 Thursday afternoon in a glittering tech
0:02 city in southern China, Donald Trump
0:04 finishes a working lunch with Xiinping.
0:06 Then the door opens for a third man,
0:08 Vladimir Putin. These three leaders have
0:11 never sat down together. And between
0:13 them, they command most of the world's
0:15 nuclear warheads with no treaty now
0:17 capping a single one. The war in Iran,
0:20 which analysts blame for rising oil
0:22 prices, is on their agenda. So why is
0:25 the White House already promising that
0:27 nothing will be signed? For weeks, the
0:30 meeting was a rumor with a date range.
0:32 On Friday, it got a day. The New York
0:34 Post reported first that President Trump
0:36 will hold a three-way summit with
0:38 Xiinping and Vladimir Putin on Thursday
0:41 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific
0:43 Economic Cooperation Summit in Shenzhen.
0:46 Later that same day, the White House
0:48 confirmed it. A senior administration
0:50 official then walked reporters through
0:52 the plan in a briefing and the details
0:54 tell you a lot about what Washington
0:56 wants out of that room and what it is
0:58 trying hard to keep out of it. Start
1:00 with the timing. Trump leaves Washington
1:03 early Monday. On Thursday morning,
1:05 November 19th, he joins the other APEC
1:08 leaders for a multilateral session. That
1:10 afternoon, he sits down with she alone
1:12 for a bilateral meeting and a working
1:15 lunch. Only after that, at the very end
1:17 of the China stop, does Putin join them.
1:20 The White House gave no exact hour and
1:22 not even a formal date, only that the
1:25 three-way meeting comes at the
1:26 conclusion of the visit. The order
1:28 matters. Trump and she get their private
1:30 time first. Putin walks into a
1:33 conversation that has already started
1:34 without him. Then the agenda. White
1:37 House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia
1:39 Wales put it this way. The president
1:41 will discuss the reduction of nuclear
1:43 weapons in the world among other topics.
1:46 The senior official added a second item.
1:48 I think the president does intend to
1:50 talk about Iran in the trilateral
1:52 meeting, the official said. And then
1:55 came the line that will be read very
1:56 carefully in Moscow and in Kiev.
1:59 Ukraine, the official said, is not part
2:01 of this conversation. Washington has, in
2:04 the officials words, a whole another
2:06 track with the Russians on that war, and
2:08 China is not really a part of that
2:10 track. One more detail surprised many
2:13 listeners. There is no separate
2:15 one-on-one meeting scheduled between
2:17 Trump and Putin during the trip. Their
2:19 first face-to-face encounter since the
2:21 Alaska summit of August 2025 will happen
2:24 with Xiinping sitting at the same table.
2:26 Now, the most striking part of the whole
2:28 briefing, expectations. Most summits are
2:31 sold in advance as breakthroughs. This
2:33 one is being sold as the opposite. We do
2:36 not expect to get to any kind of
2:37 agreement. A senior official said the
2:40 meeting was described as the entry
2:42 point, the first conversation. Another
2:45 official speaking to the Associated
2:47 Press called it the beginning of
2:49 hopefully a conversation on nuclear
2:51 [clears throat] weapons. Even the report
2:53 that broke the news hinted at a wider
2:55 menu. The Post said the talks would
2:57 focus largely on an ambitious nuclear
2:59 arms control pact, but could also touch
3:01 on North Korea and the war in Iran.
3:04 Trump himself kept things loose when
3:06 reporters asked him earlier in the week.
3:08 We'll talk a lot of things, including
3:10 denuclearization, he said. But we'll be
3:12 talking a lot of things. So, here is the
3:15 picture. Three men who have never held
3:17 talks as a group, an agenda that is
3:19 officially narrow, a promise in advance
3:22 of no deal, and one war Ukraine that one
3:25 of the three guests very much wants to
3:27 talk about. Hold on to that last point
3:30 because the Kremlin has already said
3:32 something that does not fit the White
3:34 House script at all. We will get to it.
3:36 If you want to follow this story through
3:38 Thursday and whatever comes out of that
3:40 room, subscribe now so the update lands
3:43 in your feed the moment it breaks. The
3:45 strange thing is that these three men
3:47 have been in the same building before.
3:49 In 2019, Trump, Shei, and Putin all
3:52 attended the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.
3:55 They shook hands, posed for the family
3:57 photo, and held their own separate
3:58 meetings. But they never sat down as a
4:01 group. 7 years later, the thing that did
4:03 not happen in Osaka is about to happen
4:06 in Shenzhen. And it is not because the
4:08 three are strangers. Putin and Shei have
4:11 met more than 40 times since she became
4:13 president in 2013, and they call each
4:16 other dear friend. Trump and Putin have
4:19 met face-toface on seven occasions.
4:21 Trump and Shei have held talks eight
4:23 times, including Trump's visit to
4:25 Beijing in May and she's state visit to
4:28 Washington in September. Every pair in
4:30 this triangle already has a phone line.
4:33 What has never existed is a single table
4:35 for all three. Getting there took months
4:37 of public hints. The Kremlin floated the
4:40 idea first and kept repeating it. In
4:42 early November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri
4:44 Pescov said work was underway to
4:47 coordinate the meeting, and China's
4:49 foreign ministry confirmed it was in
4:50 communication with the other parties.
4:52 Trump sounded almost casual about it.
4:55 "If President Xi wants to have it, I'd
4:57 have it," he told reporters in October.
5:00 On Friday, the hints became a schedule.
5:02 "Now look at what each man gets just
5:04 from showing up. Because that is where
5:06 the irony starts for Putin. The prize is
5:09 the photo. Analysts quoted by the
5:12 Associated Press say the Kremlin sees
5:13 the meeting as a coveted chance to
5:15 posture as a superpower on par with
5:18 Washington and Beijing. A Moscow-based
5:20 analyst told Al Jazzer that simply
5:22 sitting at that table would make Putin
5:24 first among equals and that a meeting by
5:27 itself would be a success he could sell
5:29 at home. This is the leader whose
5:31 country Western governments have spent
5:33 years trying to isolate over the
5:35 invasion of Ukraine. For Shei, the prize
5:37 is the stage. Shenzhen is China's
5:40 showcase, a city that grew from a small
5:42 fishing village into a global technology
5:45 hub in just a few decades. APEC brings
5:47 21 economies there next week, hosting
5:50 the leaders of the world's other two
5:52 great nuclear powers, lets Beijing flex
5:55 its growing clout in front of all of
5:56 them. But here is the catch for Beijing.
5:59 China has spent years presenting itself
6:01 as the champion of multilateralism, the
6:04 defender of free trade and international
6:06 institutions. A private club of three
6:09 big powers cuts against that story. You
6:11 sort of run counter to Chinese support
6:14 of multilateralism, said Huang Boon,
6:16 [clears throat] a professor of Chinese
6:18 foreign policy at Nanyang Technological
6:20 University in Singapore. And for Trump,
6:23 the prize may be at home. Democrats won
6:25 control of both chambers of Congress in
6:27 this month's midterm elections. Inderjet
6:29 Parmar, a professor of international
6:31 politics at City St. George's University
6:34 of London, told Al Jazer that after the
6:36 midterms, the domestic political need
6:39 for a foreign policy win is real. An
6:43 image of Trump sitting between she and
6:45 Putin, he argued, could be spun as proof
6:47 that American power still commands the
6:50 table, even if the substance is limited.
6:52 So all three leaders want the picture.
6:55 The question is what each of them wants
6:57 to say once the cameras leave. And on
7:00 the first item of the official agenda,
7:02 the gap between them is measured in
7:04 thousands of warheads. Last February,
7:07 something quietly disappeared that had
7:08 been in place for more than half a
7:10 century. The New START treaty signed by
7:12 the United States and Russia in 2010
7:15 expired. It limited how many strategic
7:18 nuclear warheads and launchers each side
7:20 could deploy. When it lapsed, the two
7:23 largest atomic arsenals on Earth were
7:25 left without any caps for the first time
7:27 in more than 50 years. It did not have
7:29 to end that way, at least on paper.
7:32 Moscow offered to extend the deal for
7:34 one more year. Trump said no. He called
7:37 instead for a new, improved, and
7:40 modernized agreement, one that would
7:42 also include China. Secretary of State
7:45 Marco Rubio explained the logic. In
7:47 order to have true arms control in the
7:49 21st century, he said it's impossible to
7:52 do something that doesn't include China
7:54 because of their vast and rapidly
7:56 growing stockpile. That is the bet
7:58 behind Thursday. Trump let the old
8:01 two-player treaty die in order to build
8:02 a three-player one. Shenzhen is the
8:05 first time all three players will be in
8:07 the same room to even discuss it. Here
8:09 is the problem. The three arsenals are
8:11 nowhere near the same size. The United
8:13 States and Russia are each estimated to
8:16 hold more than 5,000 nuclear warheads.
8:19 China, according to Pentagon estimates,
8:21 has more than 600. Beijing's position
8:24 has always followed from that gap. Why
8:27 should the smaller power accept limits
8:28 written for the two giants? China's
8:31 foreign ministry said it plainly last
8:33 month. It would be neither fair,
8:35 reasonable, nor realistic, it said, to
8:37 ask China to join so-called trilateral
8:40 nuclear disarmament negotiations at this
8:42 stage. Washington's answer delivered in
8:44 Friday's briefing was blunt. We do think
8:47 it's time for China to sort of step up,
8:49 you know, to the adults table, if you
8:51 will, and have adult conversations about
8:53 adult things, a senior US official said.
8:56 The official accused Beijing of building
8:58 up its arsenal without enough
9:00 transparency and argued that decisions
9:03 made in Beijing affect the security of
9:05 everyone else. [snorts] So, picture the
9:07 table on Thursday. On one side, a host
9:09 who has said on the record that he does
9:12 not want these negotiations. On another,
9:15 a guest whose offer to extend the old
9:16 treaty was turned down. And in the
9:18 middle, an American president who wants
9:20 a bigger deal than the one he let
9:22 expire. There is a darker thread
9:24 underneath and it concerns testing. In
9:27 late 2025, Trump announced plans to
9:29 resume American nuclear weapons testing,
9:31 arguing the United States should not be
9:34 the only country holding back. It later
9:36 emerged that those tests would not
9:38 involve nuclear explosions. Around the
9:40 same time, Putin told his government to
9:42 study whether Russia might carry out
9:44 nuclear tests of its own. Both moves
9:46 showed how quickly the old guard rails
9:48 can start to wobble when there is no
9:50 treaty holding them in place. What does
9:52 that mean for you? A world with no caps
9:55 is a world where each side plans for the
9:57 worst the other could build. Every new
9:59 warhead, missile, and submarine in that
10:01 race is paid for by taxpayers in
10:04 Washington, in Moscow, and in Beijing. A
10:07 conversation that slows the race, even
10:09 without a signed deal, is worth
10:11 something. A photo that changes nothing,
10:13 is worth much less. Trump has also said
10:16 the United States is already talking
10:18 with Russia and China about nuclear
10:20 disarmament. Thursday is the first time
10:22 those talks get a single table, but
10:24 nuclear weapons are only the first item.
10:27 The second is a war the United States is
10:29 fighting right now. Iran was the second
10:32 item in Friday's briefing, and it may
10:34 turn out to be the most consequential
10:36 because unlike nuclear arms control,
10:38 which is a conversation about the
10:40 future, the war in Iran is happening
10:43 now. and the two men Trump will be
10:45 talking to both have ties to Thran.
10:48 Start with Moscow. Over the course of
10:50 the Ukraine war, Russia has deepened its
10:52 military, intelligence, and diplomatic
10:55 partnership with Iran, according to the
10:57 Associated Press. Then Beijing, which
10:59 also maintains ties with Thran. When
11:02 Trump raises Iran at that table, he is
11:04 raising it with two governments that
11:06 still talk to the Iranian leadership at
11:08 a time when Washington is at war with
11:10 it. So what exactly will Trump ask them
11:12 for? Nobody would say. Officials gave no
11:15 details on what the president intends to
11:17 propose to she and Putin about Iran or
11:20 whether Washington will seek their
11:21 support for a new diplomatic push to end
11:23 the conflict. They did not say what
11:25 role, if any, Russia or China might be
11:28 asked to play. The signals from
11:30 Washington this week point in several
11:32 directions at once. Earlier in the week,
11:34 Trump said the United States no longer
11:36 needed an agreement with Iran. He
11:38 directed Vice President JD Vance, who
11:40 had been involved in diplomatic contacts
11:42 over the conflict, to turn his attention
11:45 to domestic corruption investigations
11:47 instead. The president has kept
11:49 threatening more military action against
11:51 the Iranian government, even as his
11:53 administration stresses the economic
11:55 pressure it is putting on Thran. And now
11:58 Iran is on the agenda of the most
12:00 unusual summit of his presidency. No
12:02 deal needed, more pressure, and now a
12:05 place for Iran on the agenda with Moscow
12:07 and Beijing. Is the goal in Shenzhen to
12:10 pull Russia and China away from Thrron
12:13 or to bring them into a new push to end
12:14 the war? Officials simply did not say.
12:17 Here is why this matters at your kitchen
12:19 table. Analysts say the rise in global
12:21 crude prices is due mostly to the Iran
12:24 war. Trump has offered a different
12:26 explanation. He has blamed surging
12:28 energy prices on Ukraine's attacks on
12:30 Russian oil refineries. And recently, he
12:32 struck a diesel deal with Russia, waving
12:35 sanctions on Moscow and allowing the
12:37 sale of millions of tons of the fuel.
12:39 Notice the irony. In the same season
12:41 that Washington is trying to broker an
12:43 end to Russia's war in Ukraine, it has
12:46 eased sanctions to let Russian diesel
12:48 flow while a separate war in the Middle
12:50 East squeezes energy markets. Whatever
12:53 Trump says about Iran on Thursday, the
12:55 price of fuel is part of the
12:57 conversation whether anyone mentions it
12:59 or not. There was one more surprise on
13:01 the menu. The New York Post reported
13:03 that the three leaders could also touch
13:05 on North Korea. Pyongyangs nuclear
13:07 weapons program sits right next to
13:09 everything else on this agenda, but in
13:11 Friday's briefing, the administration
13:13 sounded much cooler about any direct
13:15 contact. As of right now, there are no
13:18 plans at all for engagement with North
13:20 Korea, a senior official said. So, North
13:23 Korea may come up as a topic. Kim
13:25 Jong-un will not be getting a phone
13:27 call. So, the official menu is nuclear
13:29 weapons and Iran. Two subjects where
13:32 Washington wants something from both of
13:33 its guests. But the real fight over this
13:36 meeting is about the subject Washington
13:38 says is not on the menu at all. Remember
13:41 that Kremlin line? Here it is. On
13:44 Thursday, one day before the White House
13:45 briefing, Kremlin foreign policy aid
13:48 Yuri Ushakov spoke to Russian state
13:50 media about the trip. Naturally, during
13:52 the planned meeting with Trump at the
13:53 apex summit in Shenzhen, he said, "We
13:56 will continue to discuss the full range
13:58 of issues related to the settlement. The
14:01 settlement he meant is Ukraine." Then on
14:04 Friday, Washington said two things.
14:06 Ukraine is not on the agenda of the
14:08 three-way meeting and there is no
14:10 separate Trump Putin meeting scheduled.
14:13 Put those statements side by side and
14:15 you get a real puzzle if Ukraine is off
14:18 the trilateral agenda and there is no
14:20 one-on-one. Where exactly does the
14:23 Kremlin expect to continue to discuss
14:25 it? None of the officials has explained
14:27 the gap and that gap is the single
14:29 detail to watch most closely on
14:31 Thursday. Why does Moscow care so much?
14:34 According to the Wall Street Journal, it
14:36 was Putin who proposed the three-way
14:37 meeting in the first place as a way to
14:40 secure a peace deal more favorable to
14:42 Russia. Edgard Kagan, a former US
14:45 ambassador to Malaysia, now at the
14:47 Center for Strategic and International
14:49 Studies, described the Kremlin's goal to
14:51 the Associated Press. The key for Putin,
14:54 he said, was signaling a desire to talk
14:56 to the president and talk to Chairman Xi
14:59 in a way that suggests that they're
15:00 making decisions on Ukraine, which Kagan
15:03 added, the Ukrainians and the Europeans
15:05 obviously don't like. They don't.
15:07 Ukraine's foreign minister Andre Cibbeha
15:10 warned that the summit would only
15:11 encourage Putin to continue this war.
15:14 President Vladimir Zalinski has voiced
15:17 concern that the meeting could become a
15:18 platform to discuss a deal behind Kiev's
15:21 back. Europe's leaders, already alarmed,
15:23 agreed this week to send their own
15:25 negotiating team to the next round of
15:26 peace talks. Thursday's meeting is
15:29 exactly the kind of room Europe fears
15:31 being left out of. Here is the twist,
15:33 though. The man who could help keep
15:35 Ukraine off the table may be Xiinping.
15:38 German President Frank Walter Steinmeer
15:41 said that when he raised Ukraine with Xi
15:42 in Beijing on October 30th, he saw a
15:45 surprise on shei's face. According to
15:48 Steinmeer, she said the three presidents
15:50 would probably meet in Shenzhen, but not
15:52 to discuss Ukraine and that the Russia
15:55 Ukraine war is a European conflict in
15:57 which Europeans must sit at the table.
16:00 Beijing, in other words, does not want
16:02 to own this war at the negotiating
16:03 table, even as it remains Moscow's
16:06 number one trading partner and its main
16:08 supplier of key technologies.
16:10 Washington's own Ukraine track is
16:12 already moving elsewhere. Russian and
16:14 Ukrainian delegations resumed US
16:16 mediated talks in Abu Dhabi this week
16:19 for the first time in more than 8
16:20 months. That is the whole another track
16:22 the senior official was talking about.
16:25 Seen from the White House mixing that
16:27 track with a three-way photo in China
16:29 would only blur it. And hanging
16:31 [clears throat] over all of this is a
16:34 Yaltta. That was the conference where
16:37 Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin shaped
16:39 the post-war order in Europe. Pod Toltoy
16:42 who chairs the Russian Parliament's
16:44 foreign affairs committee has described
16:46 Shenzhen as a path toward a new Yalta
16:49 according to a Moscow-based analyst.
16:52 Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Pescov has
16:54 dismissed those comparisons noting that
16:56 any agreements reached in Shenzhen could
16:59 not be enforced on others. No one tries
17:01 to impose any particular view of global
17:03 order. He said for American allies the
17:06 worry is quieter. Interjet Palmer warned
17:09 that a standalone three-way meeting
17:11 breaks the post-war pattern in which
17:13 Washington consulted its allies before
17:15 engaging Moscow or Beijing. The real
17:18 risk, he said, is the normalization of
17:20 great power deals struck with little
17:22 consultation of those most affected. But
17:25 not every deal Trump wants in China
17:27 involves Putin at all. The one that may
17:29 matter most to American factories is the
17:31 one he makes with Shei over lunch.
17:33 Before Putin ever walks in, Trump and
17:36 Shei will spend Thursday afternoon on
17:38 something far less historic and far more
17:40 practical. Whether China is keeping its
17:42 promises. The two leaders reached a set
17:45 of trade commitments at their two
17:46 earlier meetings this year in Beijing
17:49 and in Washington. The White House says
17:51 it wants to build on those, but behind
17:53 the polite language, officials made
17:55 clear they are frustrated. And the
17:57 frustration has a name, rare earths.
18:01 These minerals and the products made
18:03 from them feed industries from defense
18:05 manufacturing to advanced electronics.
18:08 China dominates their supply and
18:10 according to a senior US official,
18:12 Beijing is not delivering. We're not
18:15 getting them at the pace and at the
18:16 level that we would like to be receiving
18:18 them at. The official said that
18:20 frustration has already left a mark. The
18:23 official said it was part of the reason
18:24 Washington extended the trade
18:26 arrangement known as the Booen Agreement
18:28 for only two months instead of six. a
18:31 shorter leash. In other words, if
18:33 Beijing wants a longer extension, it has
18:35 to show more consistent compliance. I
18:38 expect the president will raise it with
18:40 President Xi, the official said.
18:42 Officials also complained about Chinese
18:44 non-tariff barriers, the rules and
18:47 hurdles that can quietly wipe out the
18:49 benefit of lower tariffs. American and
18:51 Chinese representatives met again on
18:53 Friday to work through implementation,
18:55 but do not expect a big announcement.
18:57 The White House said it does not plan to
18:59 unveil a new tariff agreement right
19:01 after the Trump meeting. The goal is to
19:04 review progress, not to sign something
19:06 new. So what does that mean for you? If
19:09 the parts and minerals behind everyday
19:10 electronics and American weapons keep
19:12 arriving slowly, the cost lands on
19:15 factories, on defense programs, and
19:17 eventually on shelves. Thursday's lunch
19:20 is where that pressure will be applied.
19:22 There's also a famous passenger on this
19:24 trip. The White House said Elon Musk,
19:26 the head of Tesla and SpaceX, is
19:28 expected to join Trump for parts of the
19:30 China visit. Asked why, the official
19:33 pointed to Musk's extensive business
19:35 interests in the US China relationship
19:37 and his role in sectors that matter to
19:39 national security and suggested he could
19:41 be useful in an advisory capacity. But
19:44 Musk will not be in the room when it
19:46 counts. He will not attend the bilateral
19:48 with Shei or the trilateral with Putin.
19:51 Those will be official meetings with
19:53 officials only participating, the
19:55 official said. The official also played
19:57 down the chance of detailed talks about
19:59 Starlink and its role in the war in
20:01 Ukraine. And there is a shadow over the
20:03 technology talks. Jensen Huang resigned
20:06 as chief executive of Nvidia this week
20:08 after revelations about personal
20:10 relationships, including one with a
20:12 woman US intelligence officials
20:15 reportedly suspect of working for
20:16 Chinese intelligence. These are reported
20:19 suspicions, not proven facts, and
20:21 everyone involved is presumed innocent.
20:24 The White House insists the matter will
20:25 not affect the trip. The situation with
20:28 Nvidia should not really have any
20:30 bearing on the trip, a senior official
20:32 said. At the same time, the
20:34 administration is considering tightening
20:36 existing restrictions on exports of
20:38 advanced American artificial
20:40 intelligence chips. Shenzhen is only the
20:42 last stop. The trip begins in Manila,
20:45 where Trump is set to meet leaders of
20:47 the Quad, the grouping of the United
20:49 States, Japan, India, and Australia on
20:52 Tuesday evening, and take part in a
20:54 special summit with Southeast Asian
20:56 nations. He will then hold talks with
20:58 the Philippine president focused on
21:00 commercial deals and investments in
21:02 aviation, defense, energy, and
21:05 technology. By Thursday, then Trump
21:08 arrives at the trilateral after days
21:10 spent with American allies and partners
21:12 across the region. Whether he walks into
21:15 that room with more leverage or with
21:17 less is the question that will decide
21:19 how this trip is judged, which brings us
21:21 back to the paradox we started with. In
21:24 the comment sections under the first
21:26 videos about this meeting, the split is
21:28 already sharp and it runs along three
21:30 lines. The first camp sees a peace
21:32 opportunity. One viewer called the
21:35 meeting Trump last chance to talk peace
21:37 and hoped all three leaders would seize
21:40 it. Another wrote that these three
21:42 leaders were getting together to fix the
21:44 world's problems, then added a cautious
21:46 line of their own. Time will tell. For
21:49 this camp, the photo is the point. If
21:51 the men who control most of the world's
21:53 nuclear weapons can sit in one room,
21:56 that alone lowers the temperature. The
21:58 second camp sees exactly the opposite, a
22:01 deal over other people's heads. They're
22:03 going to try and carve up Ukraine like
22:05 its real estate, one commenter wrote.
22:07 Another was frustrated that NATO is
22:09 sitting back, not even involved, while
22:12 Washington talks to Russia and China
22:13 alone. That is close to the fear
22:16 Cailliv's foreign minister voiced when
22:17 he warned the summit would only
22:19 encourage Putin to keep fighting. And it
22:21 is the fear the White House is trying to
22:23 answer by keeping Ukraine off the
22:26 agenda. And the third camp simply
22:28 expects nothing. No deals will be
22:31 fostered this time," one viewer
22:33 predicted, guessing the three would talk
22:34 about Iran, Taiwan, and Ukraine without
22:37 settling anything. Another dismissed the
22:40 whole event as a photo op. A third saw
22:42 it in purely commercial terms, writing
22:45 that Trump is about business and making
22:47 money. On this one point, the skeptics
22:50 in the White House actually agree.
22:52 Officials themselves say no agreement is
22:55 expected. There were admirers, too. One
22:58 viewer called Trump the most powerful
23:00 man on planet Earth. These are personal
23:02 opinions from viewers, not verified
23:04 facts, but they frame the question
23:07 Thursday will answer. So, where do you
23:09 stand? Is the first ever Trump, she and
23:12 Putin table a real chance to slow the
23:14 nuclear race and calm the war in Iran,
23:16 or a stage that hands Putin the picture
23:18 he wanted and leaves Ukraine and
23:20 America's allies out in the hallway?
23:23 Tell us in the comments. So why is the
23:25 White House promising in advance that
23:28 nothing will be signed at the first
23:29 meeting of its kind in history? Because
23:31 the meeting itself is the move.
23:33 Washington wants China at the nuclear
23:35 table and Beijing has said for years
23:38 that it will not sit there. Getting she
23:40 into the same room as the Russian and
23:42 American leaders with arms control
23:44 officially on the agenda is already the
23:47 thing Trump has been asking for.
23:49 Promising no deal lowers the bar, keeps
23:52 the pressure off shei, and leaves room
23:54 for a second meeting. And by drawing a
23:56 hard line around Ukraine, the White
23:58 House is trying to make sure Putin gets
24:00 his photo without getting a new
24:02 negotiating table. Whether that plan
24:04 survives contact with the room is
24:06 another matter. Here are three signs to
24:08 watch. First, the Kremlin's account of
24:10 the meeting. Yuri Ushikov has already
24:13 said Ukraine will be discussed in
24:14 Shenzhen. If the Russian readout talks
24:17 about a settlement and the American one
24:18 does not, you will know the two sides
24:21 walked out of the same room with very
24:23 different stories. Second, Beijing's
24:25 words on arms control. China has called
24:28 trilateral nuclear talks neither fair,
24:31 reasonable, nor realistic. If anything
24:34 after Thursday mentions follow-up
24:35 contacts, experts, or a next round, that
24:38 is real movement. If China's statement
24:40 is all about friendship and
24:42 multilateralism, the nuclear track
24:44 stalled at the door. Third, the rare
24:47 earth's clock. The Bassan arrangement
24:49 was extended for only 2 months. Watch
24:51 whether Trump and she announced faster
24:53 deliveries or whether that short
24:55 extension starts ticking down with no
24:57 fix. And watch the calendar beyond
25:00 Shenzhen. One Moscow analyst has
25:02 suggested a follow-up could come at the
25:04 G20 summit in Miami in December and
25:07 warned that without results before
25:08 Christmas, it will be just a photo op.
25:11 Three leaders, one table, and a promise
25:14 of no deal. On Thursday, we find out
25:17 whether that promise was modesty or a
25:19 warning. If you want to understand the
25:21 war that shapes so much of this agenda,
25:24 the next video on your screen picks up
25:26 that story. Thanks for watching.